The prospect of another winter cowed by Covid is overshadowing everything at present – even Cop26. 

The historic climate change conference, which starts in Glasgow in a week’s time, could cause a spike in the infection rate, scientists like Linda Bauld and Devi Sridhar have warned. 

Speaking on BBC Scotland’s Sunday Show yesterday, the Scottish health secretary Humza Yousaf was offering no false assurances. Stressing stringent efforts were being made to contain any positive cases at the conference itself, he declared: ”There is absolutely a risk of Covid cases rising [after COP26], but we’ll do everything we can to mitigate that.” 

Mr Yousaf hailed Scotland’s booster programme, and said he “completely, completely rejected” any suggestion that it was in any way sluggish.  

But was it enough? Would there be further restrictions?  

Scotland has a range of measures still in place, including mandatory mask-wearing in indoor public places and working from home where possible, but it clear they might not be enough. “We are going to have one of the most difficult winters,” he declared. 

Scotland’s infection rate, which surged alarmingly after schools went back in August, has since fallen and is now a chunk below the UK’s, but you won’t catch many politicians crowing about such fragile victories, not when they know how easily the virus can make fools of them. 

But with protective measures already in place, politicians north of the border face fewer of the difficult questions on restrictions now being aimed at their Westminster counterparts amid surging rates in England. 

The chancellor Rishi Sunak, on BBC One’s Andrew Marr Show ahead of this week’s Budget, faced as many questions on Covid as the economy, and his messaging on it was rather less slick. 

The government’s position on mask-wearing has been marked by confusion since Sajid Javid said last week that MPs should set an example by wearing face coverings. His colleague Jacob Rees-Mogg then contradicted him by asserting that Tory MPs didn’t need to wear masks in the House of Commons because they shared a “convivial, fraternal spirit”.  This prompted care minister Gillian Keegan to retort that “everybody knows that you can get Covid from anybody”. 

What was Mr Sunak’s view: did a convivial, fraternal spirit give immunity against coronavirus? asked Marr. 

The chancellor would not answer the question directly. He also refused to be drawn on whether he himself would wear a mask in the Commons. “People will make the right judgments depending on the setting they are in,” he said. 

But at the same time, he left the door open to tougher Covid restrictions being imposed this winter – including mandatory mask-wearing.  

The practical relevance of all this in Scotland is limited, because restrictions are set here by the Scottish Government. But rising cases south of the border raise fear of a knock-on increase here; decisions on big support measures like a return to furlough would affect Scotland (though the Chancellor insisted that was not on the radar); and more broadly, the issue is a bellweather for how confident Labour is feeling in itself as the official opposition.  

The shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves also appeared on the Andrew Marr Show. She eventually provided a headline by indicating that Labour backed Plan B, meaning compulsory mask-wearing and working from home, but her interviewer had to work hard to extract it.   

The UK Government is likely to bring in further restrictions, so Labour have a chance to look as if they are setting the political agenda by backing the move early. But Ms Reeves’ discomfort in doing so may reflect concerns that a return to restrictions will go down badly with some key voters. 

With the Budget coming, Ms Reeves was more robust on public spending, trumpeting Labour’s plan for zero-rating VAT on gas to help hard-pressed households, as the Universal Credit cut, rising gas prices and rising inflation could make for a difficult Christmas for many. 

So how will the chancellor respond? He faces pressure from inside his own party to show spending restraint. Will he use Wednesday’s announcement to show that he is Norman Lamont’s true heir, a low tax chancellor committed to wrestling the public finances back into a much smaller box?  

Perhaps not. He parried questions about a return to austerity with a commitment to “strong investment in public services” and raised expectations of public sector pay rises to come. 

There was an unexpected mention of devolution when, after being interrogated on why National Insurance was being raised to pay for health and social care instead of income tax, he answered that income tax was devolved so the change could not be made UK-wide.  

Where there was surprisingly little discussion was on the cost of reaching net zero, with Mr Sunak refusing to agree with his precedessor Philip Hammond that tackling it would cost £1.4 trillion. Marr cited the figure, which came from the Committee on Climate Change, as it raised questions about how realistic the government was being about the costs of this massive transformation (he put the same question to Labour). 

The answer? It was impossible to predict this far out ahead what it would cost to meet the net zero target, the chancellor claimed. 

More scrutiny of that may come in the next few days. 

But for now, coronavirus continues to suck money and political energy away from everything else.