Every conservative MP in Scotland could lose their seat if a general election were called, the latest polling has predicted.
Constituency results from recent polls have predicted a clean sweep of Scotland for the SNP, with the party taking an unprecedented 59 seats.
However, Polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice has sounded a note of caution over the forecast, saying it was very difficult to a single party to win every seat north of the border.
The results are published by Electoral Calculus, who were the most accurate pre-poll predictors of the 2019 general election.
READ MORE: Holyrood rejects 'Trump-style' UK Elections Bill over voter ID
Such a result would mean current Scottish Tory leader Douglas Ross losing his Moray seat, along with Scottish Secretary Alistair Jack in Dumfries and Galloway.
Other high-profile casualties would be Ian Murray, holder of Labour’s last seat in Scotland in Edinburgh South, and the Lib Dem’s veteran Alistair Carmichael in Orkney and Shetland.
Electoral Calculus predicts the SNP would gain 11 seats from its 2019 result, and also increase its share of the vote by three per cent to 48%.
Labour would be in a distant second place with 20%, while support for the Scottish Conservatives has fallen by seven points to 18%.
Across the UK, the pollsters predict Labour to win 40% of the vote to the Conservatives, giving the parties 317 and 238 seats respectively. Such a result would see Labour nine MPs short of a majority.
This would allow Sir Keir Starmer to form a minority government with support from other parties. The polls were carried out in January, with the results released last week.
Could Nicola Sturgeon oversee a clean sweep in Scotland?
Scottish sampling was carried out earlier. The pollsters said: “Labour's lead over the Conservatives increased further this month to 8pc, up from 6pc at the end of December. This was due to the ongoing 'Partygate' scandal where Number Ten staff are accused of breaching Covid lockdown rules and guidance.
“Polls towards the end of January were slightly less bad for the Conservatives than those a couple of weeks earlier which showed Labour leads of more than 10pc.
“But the current situation is grim enough for the Conservatives. If these figures were repeated at a general election, they would be very likely to lose it and Keir Starmer would be on course to lead a minority Labour government.”
READ MORE: Unionist parties doubled election spending to deny SNP a majority
The added: “The key political question is whether Partygate is a transient squall and Conservative fortunes can recover, or whether it marks a sea-change like Black Wednesday in 1992 which irredeemably tarnished John Major's government in the eyes of the voters.”
Professor Curtice, of Strathclyde University, said that he could see the SNP winning 56 seats, but thought it unlikely there would be a clean sweep.
He said: “In 2015 we predicted the SNP could win 58 seats and everyone asked ‘how the devil do you get that?’, but we were close to the right result (the SNP won 56 seats).
“I would have to see the model this is based on, but generally country-wide models do not take into account the peculiarities of individual seats.
"Alistair Carmuichael, although he has been in trouble in the past, is likely to keep hold of his seat in Orkney, while Ian Murray has turned Edinburgh South into his personal fiefdom (in terms of results).
“But it is possible to see the SNP on 56 seats, or even 57, based on these predictions.”
Why are you making commenting on The Herald only available to subscribers?
It should have been a safe space for informed debate, somewhere for readers to discuss issues around the biggest stories of the day, but all too often the below the line comments on most websites have become bogged down by off-topic discussions and abuse.
heraldscotland.com is tackling this problem by allowing only subscribers to comment.
We are doing this to improve the experience for our loyal readers and we believe it will reduce the ability of trolls and troublemakers, who occasionally find their way onto our site, to abuse our journalists and readers. We also hope it will help the comments section fulfil its promise as a part of Scotland's conversation with itself.
We are lucky at The Herald. We are read by an informed, educated readership who can add their knowledge and insights to our stories.
That is invaluable.
We are making the subscriber-only change to support our valued readers, who tell us they don't want the site cluttered up with irrelevant comments, untruths and abuse.
In the past, the journalist’s job was to collect and distribute information to the audience. Technology means that readers can shape a discussion. We look forward to hearing from you on heraldscotland.com
Comments & Moderation
Readers’ comments: You are personally liable for the content of any comments you upload to this website, so please act responsibly. We do not pre-moderate or monitor readers’ comments appearing on our websites, but we do post-moderate in response to complaints we receive or otherwise when a potential problem comes to our attention. You can make a complaint by using the ‘report this post’ link . We may then apply our discretion under the user terms to amend or delete comments.
Post moderation is undertaken full-time 9am-6pm on weekdays, and on a part-time basis outwith those hours.
Read the rules hereLast Updated:
Report this comment Cancel