THE National Strategy for Economic Transformation, the 10-year vision unveiled this week by Kate Forbes, is a “radical and bold” foundation for growth, innovation, productivity, skills, improved health, employment, cultural and social outcomes, transition to net zero, and tackling structural poverty. Or so the Finance Secretary claims, estimating an increase in the size of the Scottish economy of at least 4.9 per cent (or £8 billion) by 2032.

The entrepreneur Sir Tom Hunter, on the other hand, described it as “a wish list begging for a magic wand that is not within our grasp”, while the Scottish Trades Union Congress (STUC), argued that it did not go far enough on inequality and was merely “paying lip service” to Scots’ economic well-being.

Over the past 10 years, on everything from projections of both the Scottish and UK economy to energy prices, Brexit outcomes and the pandemic, we have had ample evidence of the potential shortcomings of modelling. The Herald's Ian McConnell points out just how ambitious this plan is – especially when measured against, say, the recent and much trumpeted UK-New Zealand trade deal, which (with great uncertainty) predicts possible GDP growth of between 0.02 and 0.03 per cent, or only around £800 million.

So those dismissing it on the basis that it is not ambitious enough may have extremely unrealistic expectations. And that is before taking account of the predictions of the UK Government back in 2018 that Brexit might account for GDP around five per cent lower – or even worse, with immigration restrictions, which have unfortunately been imposed – by the early part of the next decade.

Nor, however, is there any reason to be negative about aiming for significant improvement, or to dismiss the notion that government action – though it may not often directly create or run industries well – can nevertheless foster a climate in which enterprise and improved economic chances flourish.

GDP is not the only measure of prosperity, and an improvement of five per cent is extremely ambitious. But it is not unprecedented, especially in the immediate aftermath of sharp falls (such as that created by the pandemic).

The Scottish Government has substantial obstacles to overcome if it is serious about this agenda. We have an ageing population, a low birth rate and a low rate of business start-ups, and significant problems in public services, infrastructure and education and skills training.

Addressing those will be essential for transforming our economy, though doing so would, of course, be a good in itself. It will also require a cultural shift much more predisposed towards the benefits of enterprise, and the conditions – including lighter regulation and taxation – that encourage it.

The recent historic examples of sustained growth were under Margaret Thatcher and Tony Blair’s periods in office, comparisons the Scottish Government may not relish, while its own interventions in the economy – notably the failure of a promised green bonanza – have not, for the most part, been stellar successes.

This plan, however, shows signs that it recognises, and takes seriously, the approaches that underpin a successful economy – which includes tackling inequality, educational and health deficits and quality of life as well as more obvious financial spurs towards productivity and job generation.

Rather than carping, the STUC (which has not done much to facilitate job and wealth creation itself) should accept – as the Government shows signs of doing – that private enterprise, growth and technological innovation are exactly the preconditions for social improvements, enhanced life opportunities, skills, mobility, health, education, culture and reduction of inequality.

No government initiative is going to offer everything that everyone would like to see; it is not in Holyrood’s power to deliver Utopia. Equally, it is futile to pour cold water on a set of proposals, even if they initially appear overly optimistic. Better, surely, to set the bar high. There must be acknowledgement, however, of the stiff challenges and the scale of the changes necessary to realise them. But if the Government is prepared to introduce the kinds of measures that will make Scotland more entrepreneurial and innovative, there is every chance we can also become commensurately more successful, prosperous and equitable.