IN my regular column on this page two weeks ago, I wrote what was intended to be the first of three linked columns on Scotland’s constitutional future. In summary, that column offered a view that Scotland’s political debate had become so polarised, so entrenched, so grubby, that the only way to better ourselves is to hold a second (and almost certainly final) independence referendum, after which we can move on with improving our country.

Today’s column, and the one due to be on this page in a fortnight’s time, were supposed to be an offer to each of the unionist and nationalist campaigns on how I think they should equip themselves to run the best referendum campaigns, and to prepare themselves to contribute to the post-indyref2 Scotland, win or lose.

Those columns will be written, but not today. For, in the 14 days which have passed, the world has turned in a fashion so dramatic that its consequences cannot be ignored. Most particularly, the West’s relatively successful immediate response to Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine cannot mask its abject failure to read his intentions, which he has telegraphed for over a decade.

The overarching lesson which we in the West must learn is that you simply cannot trust someone who does not believe in democracy. A leader who does not believe in democracy is, in the final analysis, a leader who is unstable, unpredictable and untrustworthy. The American theologian Reinhold Niebuhr said "Man's capacity for justice makes democracy possible; but man's inclination to injustice makes democracy necessary". Putin’s inclination is to injustice.

Freely-trading, capitalist democracies are the guardians of the world. And so they should be, for only freely-trading, capitalist democracies have the understanding, perspective and incentive not to destroy themselves, each-other or the world.

These guardians tread a fine line, though. They have to deal with countries which share some of their objectives, but not all. Countries like Russia like the trade, and in a sense like the capitalism, but they abhor the democracy which we believe has to sit alongside. The fine line we tread is to encourage such countries into our world by giving them and their people the financial benefits of capitalism whilst encouraging them to understand that these benefits are fairer and more enduring if they are accompanied by democracy.

Sometimes, inevitably, we get the balance wrong. With Russia, boy, did we get the balance wrong.

We pandered to Putin. We homed his friends. We educated their children. We normalised their bastardised economic and political fusion. We trusted his dependence on trade. We turned off our reactors and bought his gas. We fed the beast.

And the beast bit off our head.

What now?

Firstly, and self-evidently, we need to win this war, all-the-while minimising its death toll and its geographical footprint. To that end, we appear to be making a decent fist of it so far. Putin is not a Soviet-style communist dictator. His power is not based on ideology and misplaced loyalty; it is based on money. He – or more accurately we – have made the average Russian much more comfortable.

We are now in the process of making those ordinary Russians feel extremely uncomfortable. We must continue this. Harsh as it will be for individual families, we need to make Russians as poor as possible in order to prove to them that Putin is not the answer to their prayers, he is the course of their nightmares.

And we need to continue to punish them psychologically, which so far has taken the form of banning them from an increasing number of global sporting endeavours. The Russians love their sport, and they are pretty good at it, too. Being frozen out will hurt. No Olympics. No World Cup. No Grand Prix. And, who knows, come the summer, Russia's new men’s world number one tennis player, Daniil Medvedev, may find himself frozen out of this year’s remaining Grand Slams.

Beyond the war, though, we need to think about the peace. And the only way to truly make peace with the Russian Bear is for it to be a teddy rather than a grizzly. Enduring peace with Russia is only possible when it makes the same journey that so many of its former Soviet satellites have made, into freely-trading capitalist democracy, including membership of or most important geopolitical institutions such as NATO and the EEA (European Economic Area).

We will all have an excruciatingly long journey ahead of us to get there, but the prize for reaching the destination is indescribable. Freely-trading capitalist democracies do not go to war with each other.

This is the adaptation we need on a global stage. However, we would be foolish to believe that we are insulated from making a series of existential decisions here in Scotland and the UK. We are not, and this invasion should instantly change the conversations we have in a number of areas.

The most obvious one concerns our energy supply. The UK, and in particular Scotland, could be a genuine world-leader in the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy. No other country in the world has the relative scale of both oil and gas production today, and renewable production tomorrow, that we have here in Scotland.

However, the Russian invasion should fundamentally change the conversation we have around the transition from one to the other. If there was ever an argument to shut down our own primary energy supply, only to replace it with imports from Russia, that argument is now dead as a doornail. Just ask the Germans. The West enriched the world’s most dangerous man. Time to stop.

Our home-grown oil and gas can provide an ethical, secure gap-filler, also reducing the long-term cost-of-living crisis which thunders towards us, while we complete our renewables transition.

But even when we get there, we still need a more reliable constant reply of green energy. And, in that endeavour, it is now time for us to have a more grown-up conversation about the use of nuclear power, particularly through small modular reactors.

Ironically, we circle right back to my article on these pages two weeks ago. Our friends around the world are having a debate about energy, again. Let’s join in. Let’s lead it.

Andy Maciver is Director of Message Matters and Zero Matters