HOW to read the mind of a tyrant? Is Vladimir Putin slowly backing down with a change in military strategy or is he preparing to double down in a long war of attrition in Ukraine?

As the conflict enters its second month, it seems clear the Kremlin’s cakewalk strategy has melted away in the Ukrainian mud. Instead of receiving flowers and kisses as liberators, Russian soldiers had, as one Western official put it, encountered a “hornet’s nest”.

The Russian army is overstretched with over-extended supply lines. It is reportedly running out of precision-guided munitions while its armoured vehicles are low on fuel. High-tech weapons supplied by Nato members to Ukrainian forces are helping to stall Russian progress and in some areas they are now counter-attacking and regaining ground.

Kherson, the first major city to have been taken by Russian forces, is now said to be no longer fully under their control and could be retaken by Ukrainian forces.

Kremlin efforts to recruit mercenaries to replace lost troops are being increased as morale among raw Russian soldiers is dwindling.

Indeed, Western intelligence suggested one Russian brigade commander was killed by his own troops angered at the scale of casualties they are taking. He was supposedly run over by a tank.

Motivation is crucial to any military victory; the troops on the ground have to believe in the cause. The lack of this among young Russian soldiers is contrasted by the fierce defiance shown by their Ukrainian counterparts.

Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s President, again hailed his troops as having delivered “powerful blows” to the invaders as he urged Moscow to negotiate an end to the war.

Nato estimates in four weeks of fighting up to 15,000 Russia troops have been killed in combat. This is the same number Russia lost in Afghanistan over 10 long years.

Unexpectedly this week, Moscow announced it had accomplished the “first phase” of its military operation and Russian forces would now concentrate on the “main goal: liberation of Donbas,” the region in eastern Ukraine, which is part-held by Russian-backed separatist rebels.

The move seemed a clear sign the Kremlin was, for now, scaling back its war aims.

Another Western official noted scathingly: “As the first phase of the operation included taking Kyiv within four days, I would probably contest the idea that they have achieved the first phase of the operation.”

Meanwhile, Boris Johnson was handed a badge of honour by the Kremlin after it effectively described him as public enemy number one.

How fortunes change. A few weeks ago, the PM was the post everyone was keen to kick over partygate but, perhaps like Margaret Thatcher, he is finding out there is nothing like a war overseas to recalibrate your political standing; at least for some people.

In contrast, following his fiscal prestidigitation Chancellor Rishi Sunak has, as one colleague suggested, gone from “being the golden boy to the tin man overnight”.

A Kremlin spokesman described Johnson as the “most active participant in the race to be anti-Russian”. But the PM drew the distinction between being anti-Putin and anti-Russian.

He insisted he was “absolutely not” anti-Russian, explaining: “I’m probably the only prime minister in UK history to be called Boris. I have that distinction and I’m not remotely anti-Russian.”

This week, Johnson cranked up the pressure yet more.

On Friday, he confronted China’s President Xi Jinping in a “frank and candid” 50-minute phonecall over Ukraine, underlining Western powers’ concern at Beijing’s stance on the conflict; that is, its tacit support for Putin’s carnage. Nato leaders have urged China to refrain from any action that would help Russia circumvent sanctions.

At Nato’s headquarters, Joe Biden said he had made clear to Xi that if he chose sides, he should, in China’s self-interest, choose the West.

“I made no threats,” explained the US President, who was in Poland yesterday for talks, “but I made sure he understood the consequences of him helping Russia. China understands its economic future is much more closely tied to the West than it is to Russia.”

Johnson admitted he was “not optimistic” Putin would back down and agree to a diplomatic resolution. He feared the Russian President had “decided to double down and try to Groznify the great cities of Ukraine,” a reference to Putin’s order to flatten the Chechnyan capital during the 1999 war.

A cornered tyrant facing defeat might be the most dangerous adversary of all.

On Thursday, during his visit to Europe Biden made clear Nato would “respond in kind” should Putin resort to desperate measures and mount a chemical weapons attack.

While the White House explained the US President was not talking of launching American chemical strikes, the suggestion of fierce military retaliation was clear. The memory of Barack Obama’s non-existent red line over the Syrian regime’s use of chemical weapons is seared on Biden’s memory.

And yet the change in Moscow’s strategy to concentrate on the Donbas could point to Putin’s exit strategy. Having already annexed Crimea, he might argue he has liberated the Donbas, created a Russian corridor to Crimea and in doing so demilitarised and deNazified Ukraine. Job done.

The Kremlin-controlled state media would declare a glorious victory from a military defeat. There is even talk Putin has pencilled in the “end” to Russia’s “special military operation” for May 9 when the country each year marks the end of WW2 with an extravagant victory day parade in Moscow's Red Square.

Even in the strange dimension Putin inhabits, it must be clear his plan to turn Ukraine into a puppet state has failed. As Nato has become more unified and emboldened, Ukraine has found a sense of national unity and resilience. Johnson noted: “Far from extinguishing Ukraine as a nation, he’s solidifying it.”

The present unknown is what deep currents are moving through the Kremlin and across Russian society.

This week in another televised rant, the Russian President complained about how the West had cancelled Russian culture. Time is well past for the Russian people to cancel Putin.