TIMING may not be everything in politics but it’s pretty close. Getting it right is invariably crucial to ensuring a policy is a roaring success rather than a whimpering failure.

Given what’s happened this week with Boris Johnson having become the first serving prime minister to have broken the law and the potential consequences for the Conservatives in May’s local elections – an almighty drubbing – then Nicola Sturgeon’s finger may be hovering over the Indyref2 button in Bute House.

In January, the FM was put on the spot when it was pointed out to her that, since 2017, she had been tantalising her supporters with the prospect of Indyref2 every year.

Sturgeon didn’t appear best pleased at being portrayed as the Grand Old Duchess of York, marching her troops to the top of the hill, only, having surveyed the landscape, to quickly march them back down again.

The FM pointed out how “preparatory work” for a second shot at independence was under way and the Scottish Government would decide the date for introducing a referendum Bill at Holyrood “in the coming weeks” with a view to holding the public vote before December 2023.

Nearly 12 weeks on, it’s not unreasonable to assume decision day on setting the Referendum Bill date is almost upon us. Last month, Alex Salmond, leader of the Alba Party, told The Herald the prospect of Sturgeon realising her desire to see Indyref2 by December 2023 didn’t appear “particularly credible”.

Exasperated, the ex-FM said a political campaign was urgently needed to make the case for independence and the process of having a referendum – “or …another democratic electoral test” – needed to be accelerated.

He didn’t elaborate on this alternative route but Douglas Chapman, the SNP MP for Dunfermline, suggested one, should Indyref2 not materialise any time soon: securing a majority of pro-independence Scottish MPs at Westminster.

No UK Government would ever accept this because it would have been voted in on a mandate not to facilitate Indyref2. Which is what will happen again in 2024.

Last month, Patrick Harvie, the Scottish Greens’ co-leader and now a Scottish Government minister, made clear people would “not … have long to wait” before the Referendum Bill was before MSPs.

‘THROUGH THE PANDEMIC’

WHILE Sturgeon has always caveated her remarks about Indyref2 with reference to the ending of the Covid pandemic, earlier this month Michael Russell, the SNP president, announced confidently to a pro-independence march in Arbroath: “We are now through the pandemic,” adding: “We are on a trajectory to that referendum.”

Of course, the best time for a politician to make a key strategic move is when your opponent is at their weakest.

The fallout of Boris’s partygate fine has been intense this week but looks set to get even more so next week when MPs return from their Easter break.

A mood of indignation will sweep over Westminster helped along by Labour’s Sir Keir Starmer and the SNP’s Ian Blackford.

Key will be the feedback Tory MPs get this long Easter weekend from their constituents and whether it chimes with their view that now, in the midst of the Ukraine war, is not the time to ditch the leader.

However, there is still the possibility of more fines for Boris and more revelations from Sue Gray’s full report expected soon – possibly before the May 5 poll.

The next day the fallout of the local elections will arrive – a day that could be pivotal for UK politics in more ways than one.

Not only will the PM have to survive another tidal wave of criticism if, as expected, a swathe of Tory councillors lose their seats as voters vent their anger at Downing Street’s scandalous partygate behaviour, but there will also be the not-so-little matter of the Northern Irish elections at Stormont.

Opinion polls are suggesting an historic win for Sinn Fein which is currently seven points clear of the Democratic Unionists.

Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, the DUP leader, has declined to say if he would serve under an Executive led by Sinn Fein’s Michelle O’Neill but has made clear his party would not help form a government until the issues around the Northern Ireland protocol are resolved.

To coalesce Unionism behind the DUP, senior party figures have been warning how Sinn Fein is planning a border poll should it win a Stormont majority, although the Nationalists insist their primary focus during the campaign has been on tackling the cost-of-living crisis.

It would be a perfect political storm for Johnson if, post-May 5, he is faced with an SNP Government in Scotland demanding a fresh referendum on independence and a Sinn Fein Executive threatening a border poll on Irish unity.

Constitutionally, Westminster is sovereign but there are several factors to be considered on both fronts for the UK Government.

The Scotland Act gives Westminster the authority over matters relating to the Union between Scotland and England. However, lawyers for Edinburgh will seek to emphasise the “sovereignty” of the Scottish people and that their democratic votes should be honoured by Westminster. A battle royal in court is expected.

As for Northern Ireland, the 1998 Act says the province will not leave the UK without the consent of the majority in Northern Ireland voting in a referendum. The Northern Ireland Secretary has the power to call one but has a duty to do so, if it seems likely a majority of people would favour a united Ireland.

But how the minister would determine that is not clear. Plus, there would, under the Good Friday Agreement, have to be a “concurrent” poll in the Republic. There would, therefore, be a lot of process to get through.

So, it seems, if Boris survives the shaming of partygate, his next big political battle could be on the constitution and keeping the United Kingdom together – not just on one front but on two.

A key factor will be whether or not the Grand Old Duchess of York has the courage of her convictions to push that button as promised. And gets the timing right.