Troubled £150m Scottish census has 'solid foundation', experts insist

However James Brown, ABS Professor of Official Statistics at University of Technology Sydney,said extending the once-a-decade household survey had “improved consistency” across the country.

The Scottish Tories it was "desperate" spin driven by SNP ministers trying to gloss over how "disastrous" the census had been.

Prof Brown was commenting after the census was delayed for a second time this week, amid growing opposition concern the exercise has become a “shambles” and “fiasco”. 

Originally due to take place last year at the same time as the English and Welsh censuses, the Scottish survey was delayed by ministers for a year because of the pandemic.

The English and Welsh response rate was 97 per cent.

However in Scotland almost a third of Scottish households in some local authorities had failed to respond by the initial May 1 deadline, forcing an extension to May 31.

With the response rate around 87% against a target of 94.2% when this deadline arrived, the cut-off was then moved again to June 12.

SNP constitution secretary Angus Robertson, the cabinet minister overseeing the survey, was in Belgium when the second extension was slipped out via the NRS website. 

The target is for all 32 council areas to have at least an 85% response rate.

Four have yet to achieve this, including Glasgow, while five have exceeded 90%.

The latest return rate is 87.5% nationally, with around 2,285,500 of Scotland’s 2.7million filling in a form online or on paper under threat of a £1000 fine.

The survey is used to inform, design and improve public services.

Prof Brown said: “In line with international best practice a high quality 21st century census of population and housing brings together several phases of data collection and reconciliation, to deliver robust and detailed estimates of the numbers of individuals and households. 

“The Scottish Census is no exception and the main collection phase has now generated the data that is the basis of these estimates.

“While the overall return rates are lower than originally planned, NRS’s extension has improved consistency and returns across the country. 

“With this solid foundation it is now time to move to the next phase and conduct a high quality coverage survey.  

“The coverage survey, combined with innovative use of administrative data, will allow NRS to estimate the size, shape and characteristics of the population as planned. 

“The statistical methods for this are designed to be robust in a range of scenarios. 

“This will ensure the census estimates are representative of both Scotland as a whole and its local communities, as well as enable comparisons across the UK.”

Tory MSP Donald Cameron said: “This looks like a desperate attempt by SNP ministers to put a positive spin on a disastrous Scottish census.

“Before Scotland’s census was launched, we were told that a 94% completion rate was the minimum required for the information to be usable.

"Yet now we’re being told that a completion rate of just 87.5% is a ‘solid foundation’.

“If that is truly the case, why was the Scottish Government’s official Census website quietly updated yesterday with what appears to be another extension to the deadline – this time to June 12?

“What is beyond doubt is that the SNP, in their desperation to be different, shunned a UK-wide census and publicity campaign that yielded a 97% completion rate to do their own thing.

“The result has been a chaotic, poorly-publicised, delayed and over-budget census that once again highlights how incompetent and wasteful this SNP Government is.”

Labour MSP Sarah Boyack said of the 87.5% return rate: "These dire figures are humiliating for the SNP but they should worry us all. 

"This botched exercise has wasted millions of pounds of taxpayer money and left us with a census that is not credible.

“Worst of all, the poorest communities stand to be robbed of vital resources for years to come because of this farce.

“The SNP must stop burying their heads in the sand about the severity of this shambles and explain how they will fix the mess they have made.”

NRS chief executive and Registrar General for Scotland Paul Lowe said he delighted to be able to draw on the expertise of "such a distinguished group of statisticians and experts in census and administrative data".

He said: “We have secured a good level of national census returns and coverage. 

"I am pleased that the International Steering Group has acknowledged that we are in a strong position to move forward and I welcome the contributions they will make to steering our statistical and methodological work over the next few months.

“This will support us to deliver our census coverage survey, and our work to identify the appropriate administrative data which can support our quality assurance work.

“Our wide range of customers and users of census data can be further reassured that this support and advice from the Steering Group will help NRS to produce a high quality census data set – one that will ultimately provide them with the right statistical outputs they need to inform future service planning.”

The census coverage survey was supposed to start on June 1, but has been delayed until June 13 because of the census itself being delayed.

It is a separate survey from the survey which, although it covers only 1.5% of Scottish households, is still the second largest social research exercise in Scotland after the census.

It is conducted door-to-door by staff carrying identification and ensures a comprehensive and accurate picture of return rates across the country has been recorded.

The other members of the International Steering Group are Professor Sir Ian Diamond, UK National Statistician, Professor David Martin, Professor of Geography at the University of Southampton and Deputy Director of the UK Data Service, Owen Abbott OBE, Deputy Director, Methods & Statistical Design at ONS, Abby Morgan, Senior Design Analyst, Stats New Zealand, Alastair McAlpine, Interim Chief Statistician, Scottish Government, Professor Andrew Morris, Director, Health Data Research UK, and Roeland Beerten, Chief Statistician, Statistics Flanders.