NICOLA Sturgeon's plan to use the next general election as a ‘de facto’ referendum has left voters divided, according to a new poll.

The survey by Ipsos Scotland found that if pro-independence parties win a majority of votes at the next general election, 39 per cent of Scots believe it gives the government a mandate to start talks on leaving the UK. 

However, 38% said it would not, while another 24% were unsure or had no strong views.

In June, the First Minister asked Lord Advocate Dorothy Bain to request a ruling from the Supreme Court on the legality of Holyrood staging its own vote without the agreement of Westminster.

Ms Sturgeon said she intends to hold a second referendum on October 19 next year, if the justices say she has the power to do so.

The First Minister said that if the court refused it would be “the fault of Westminster legislation” and she would fight the next general election as a “de facto referendum” on the single issue of independence.

If pro-independence parties then won a majority of the votes cast, she would regard it as a mandate to open negotiations with London.

There was more support from voters in what has been described as the "gold standard" where both the Scottish and UK Governments agreed to hold a referendum.

According to the poll, 63% of Scots said that a Yes vote under these circumstances would “definitely or probably establish a proven democratic mandate for Scottish independence.”

Even if the UK Government do not agree, 47% of Scots told the pollster that a Yes vote would still definitely or probably establish a democratic mandate, though 35% felt it would not, and 18% were unsure or had no strong views.

The attitudes to holding a referendum without the UK Government’s agreement are clearly divided along Yes/No lines, the pollster said.

Ipsos Scotland also tested some of the arguments that would be used in any future vote. 

More than half of all voters, 59%, said it was true that “people in Scotland want to take the country in a very different political direction to England.”

Another 58% agreed with the statement that “Scotland should be independent because Westminster governments cannot be trusted to act in Scotland’s interests,”

On Brexit, 53% of voters were persuaded by the argument that “Scotland should be independent because the UK left the European Union even though Scotland voted to Remain.”

However, support for No was boosted by the perceived risk to the economy of independence.

Some 57% of voters thought the argument that “leaving the UK and becoming an independent country would be a major risk for Scotland’s economy and jobs” was ‘very’ or ‘fairly’ convincing.

The polling also suggests that there is some support for the argument that “in spite of current challenges, the different countries of the UK still have more in common than divides us”. 

56% of voters said they found that convincing, compared to 39% who thought it was not.

Meanwhile, 55% thought the argument that “Scotland gets the best of both worlds from having its own devolved parliament and also being part of the UK” was convincing, while 41% thought it was not.

Around 52% thought the argument that “leaving the UK would leave Scotland isolated and weaker on the international stage” was convincing, while another 43% rejected the claim.

Rachel Ormston, Research Director at Ipsos in Scotland, said: “These findings highlight the challenges for pro-independence supporters in finding a mechanism to establish a democratic mandate for independence that is widely accepted by the Scottish public as a whole. 

“While the UK Government appears unlikely to agree to a second referendum in the near future, this is currently the only route that a clear majority of Scots view as legitimate. 

“This is in spite of the fact that one of the arguments in favour of independence that the Scottish public find most convincing is that Westminster cannot be trusted to act in Scotland’s best interests.”

The SNP’s Independence Campaign Coordinator, Stewart Hosie, said the poll was positive for his party. 

He said: “This poll shows that in every possible scenario there is clear support amongst Scots for the basic principle that a vote for independence is a mandate for independence.
 
“A referendum similar to the one conducted in 2014 is the ideal scenario which would commit both sides to respecting the result, but right now the only roadblock to that is the Westminster government.
 
“If the Westminster party politicians have gamed on the Scottish public opposing a referendum without their approval, or a general election being a ‘de-facto’ referendum, they’ve been firmly put in their place by this poll which shows Scots' growing dissatisfaction with the Tories’ undemocratic approach.
 
“The mandate the Scottish Government received in 2021 was just the latest in a series of mandates delivered by the people of Scotland after a shambolic 12 years of Tory rule, austerity, and Brexit chaos.

"Perhaps Westminster's reluctance to agree terms on a referendum shows they are running scared of losing.
 
“But whatever the reason for their opposition to a referendum, it holds no democratic weight and their continued opposition will only convince more and more Scots that Westminster doesn’t work for them."