SOMETIMES the political tide turns imperceptibly but more often than not the signs are pretty much unmistakeable.

As we face the icy blast of another winter of discontent, it seems Labour looks set to benefit most politically from the public gloom as the UK Government tries to disentangle itself from the ever growing web of industrial strife and other intractable problems.

Rishi Sunak’s determination to “get tough” with the trade unions via stronger legislation on strikes paves the way for an industrial battle royal in 2023, which will set the atmosphere for the next General Election. It won’t be pleasant.

The PM’s clear hope is that, as the strikes drag on, more of the public will get fed up with missing trains, cancelled flights and delayed parcels and, rather than blame the Government, they will start to blame the strikers. Neither side looks intent on blinking first.

As Conservative ministers draw up legislation to constrain public sector strikes, Labour made clear it would fight any anti-strike law “every step of the way,” accusing the Government of treating key public workers with disrespect.

And then to add to Keir Starmer’s delight came the discontent spilling over within the SNP ranks at Westminster following the ousting of Ian Blackford as their leader. After a third MP quit the Nationalist frontbench, new leader Stephen Flynn denied plotting and is expected to announce a new, condensed team in the next 48 hours.

While there are denials of disunity from some, it’s sometimes the silences in politics that speak the loudest.

So, as the Tories and the Nationalists fight in their respective sacks, Labour can quietly draw up its manifesto policies as the party leadership remains calm, composed and – it hopes - united as the government-in-waiting it believes it now is.

This week, after Labour secured the expected victory in the Chester by-election, it emerged the comrades had received a big chunk of money - £4.7m - from their growing army of donors.

By contrast, the elections watchdog, reported that, between July and September, the Tories pulled in £2.9m.

Interestingly, the bulk of Labour’s donations didn’t come from their go-to benefactors, the trade unions, which handed over £1.6m, but, rather, wealthy individuals.

There may be more to come as, worryingly for Sunak, Labour is expecting to get an even larger sum in the final quarter.

Labour insiders are cock-a-hoop. One gushed: “Donors are coming back to Labour because they can see we are a changed party, which is serious about getting into government and building a fairer, greener, more dynamic Britain.”

Meantime, Conservatives are in the dumps. At least 14 Tory MPs have already announced they won’t be standing at the next election, including ex-Chancellor Sajid Javid, who, it’s thought, wants to return to making millions in the City as well as Matt Hancock, the camel penis-eating ex-minister.

In response to the fall-off in donations Tory HQ has decided to increase the party membership fee to new members, raising it 56% from £25 to £39; although it’s still below Labour’s £50 fee.

One Conservative backbencher couldn’t restrain himself and branded the move an “absolutely stupid idea”.

In another sign the tide is turning, on Thursday, the chief comrade and his Shadow Cabinet colleagues schmoozed merrily with captains of industry in their attempt to emulate New Labour and convince them, after the failed Corbyn experiment, they are indeed pro-business.

At the party’s business conference in London’s financial high-rise hub of Canary Wharf, Starmer declared how Labour wanted to “partner business”. Lord Mandelson must have been giggling into his champagne.

Under Starmer, Labour has been ahead in the polls for all of 2022, apart from one, which was tied. Leads have varied from 1% to 39%; the latest was 20%.

The most favourable projection would give the party a Commons majority of 172. This would be seismic at just seven short of Tony Blair’s landslide in 1997. Which, of course, led to the Conservatives being in the political wilderness for 13 years.

But there was another opinion poll, which lifted SNP hearts, with headlines screaming it had given the Yes campaign its biggest lead with 56% of Scots saying they were in favour of independence with 44% saying they were against it.

But the reporting on polls doesn’t always give the whole picture. The don’t knows, arguably the ones who would decide the result of any Indyref2, were left out. Add them in, and the snapshot showed a 50-43 rating in favour of independence with 6% don’t knows and 1% refusing to answer.

Now, of course, this is still a very good showing for the pro-independence cause but I suspect there might be an element within it of Scots continuing to register their displeasure at being told by judges in London what they can and cannot do.

However, underlying the challenge in Scotland for Labour was another number, which showed the SNP still riding high on 50% with Sarwar’s party on half that. The political tide, it seems, will take longer to turn north of the border.

Labour’s long-delayed devo-plus plan this week didn’t quite get the standing ovation Starmer and Anas Sarwar might have hoped for. With so much public concern focused on surviving the vicissitudes of the cost-of-living crisis, it came as no surprise people were not overly excited by plans, however noble, for more constitutional reform.

Abolishing the House of Lords and replacing it with an elected Senate, representing the nations and regions, is the right thing to do in a democracy but it’s been promised so many times, it will be a case for many of believing it when they see it.

It’s the nature of democratic politics that, eventually, fortunes change; that those, who for so long were riding high, after a deal of time struggle and lose their shine with voters.

While the point of inevitability about the next general election hasn’t quite been reached yet, it may not be far off. But once the moment arrives, we’ll all feel it.