We are now long past the opening madness of the SNP’s leadership contest. In the early days of the race, it was the biblical austerity of Kate Forbes and her opposition to gay marriage or children born outside ‘wedlock’ which gobsmacked the public. Either that or Ash Regan and her ‘kick the door in’ Brexiteer-approach to independence left mouths hanging open.
However, now those positions have festered a while, we can see their effects on the SNP. Put simply, the party is falling to pieces. It is as divided as the Tory Party at the height of its Brexit civil war, or the Labour Party under Jeremy Corbyn.
To opposition delight, Forbes trashed the SNP’s record in government - a government she is a senior member of as Finance Secretary - with a brutality unionists must have richly envied.
Political parties at war seldom win elections, and the SNP is already looking at rather grim polls. Mhairi Black, the SNP’s deputy leader at Westminster, has even gone so far as to say that the party will split if Forbes wins. Nicola Sturgeon had to respond by saying that she didn’t believe that would happen.
Let’s just consider this for a moment: the SNP is even split on whether it’s going to split. The most successful political party in a generation has imploded in a matter of days.
This week’s opinion polls made really unpleasant reading for nationalists. In November, 49% of people said they’d vote Yes to independence and 45% No. Today, it’s 51% No and 42% Yes. Even among SNP voters support for Yes has slipped from 81% to 76% between November and March.
In 2019, the UK general election saw the SNP poll 45% and Labour 19%. Today, it’s 39% to the SNP, 29% to Labour. When it comes to voting at Holyrood, the constituency vote breaks down 40% to the SNP, with 29% to Labour - that’s down 8% for the SNP and up 7% for Labour. On the regional Holyrood list, it’s SNP 29% (down 11%) and Labour 26% (up 8%).
The SNP also seems to be way out of synch with voters. On the hustings, Forbes, Regan and Humza Yousaf have beat the independence drum relentlessly. However, when the public are asked what the most important issues are, it is the economy on 71%, the NHS on 63%, with independence registering just 21% on level pegging with immigration.
No matter who wins this leadership contest, the public can no longer trust the SNP...
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