LABOUR could be on course to win 23 seats off of the SNP at the next general election, according to a new poll from YouGov. 

Humza Yousaf would lose nearly all of his Glasgow and Lanarkshire MPs, with his party winning 27 constituencies, down considerably from the 48 won under Nicola Sturgeon in 2019.

Losers would include the party’s deputy leader at Westminster, Mhairi Black, with her Paisley and Renfrewshire South seat heading back to Labour. 

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If the poll is correct, Labour would also take Na h-Eileanan an Iar from veteran MP Angus MacNeil. He has held the constituency since 2005 and is one of the SNP’s longest-serving parliamentarians. 

It wasn’t all bad news for the First Minister. YouGov also suggested the SNP would take Douglas Ross' Moray constituency.

Though that may be academic, under current Boundary Commission plans the seat is due to be abolished at the next election, split between a newly formed Aberdeenshire North and Moray East and Nairn, Strathspey and Moray West.

However, the survey did also suggests the Conservatives could lose Andrew Bowie’s West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine to the SNP.

Rishi Sunak’s party would hold just four seats, Banff and Buchan, and the three border constituencies.

The Lib Dems would keep their four seats, but fail to take back the East Dunbartonshire, the constituency once held by former leader Jo Swinson.

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The survey was carried out using multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP), which saw the firm talk to 3,500 voters, a far larger number than usual. 

The fieldwork was carried out between April 10 and May 21 – after Mr Yousaf took over as First Minister, and after the Police Scotland investigation into the SNP’s finances saw the arrest of the party’s former chief executive Peter Murrell and ex-treasurer, Colin Beattie. 

Both men were released without charge, pending further investigation. 

The pollster said “repeated recent bad news stories for the SNP and its new leader” had “taken a serious toll” on the party’s support.


Patrick English, associate director of political and social research at YouGov, said: “The results of YouGov’s Scottish MRP shows the SNP have some serious cause for concern, but will provide strong encouragement to Labour as they look ahead to the next general election.

“Making significant gains in Scotland could be crucial to Starmer’s chances of heading into Number 10 with a parliamentary majority next year, and these figures suggest his party is now making strong progress north of the border.

“That, plus the prospect of losing their own Scottish leader’s seat, will no doubt worry the Conservatives.”

According to the pollster, the SNP would lose six of the current seven Glasgow constituencies it currently holds – Glasgow Central, Glasgow East, Glasgow North, Glasgow North East, Glasgow North West and Glasgow South. 

Only Chris Stephens’ Glasgow South West, would remain SNP.

Though here too the boundary commission has recommended changes, with Alison Thewliss’s Glasgow Central being split up between the other constituencies. 

Reports yesterday suggested she could either challenge Patrick Grady for the nomination in Glasgow North, or that she would succeed Ms Sturgeon as the MSP for Glasgow Southside, with the former first minister standing down ahead of the Westminster vote to allow a by-election to be held on the same day as the general election.

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While the SNP won 48 MPs at the 2019 election, two have since defected to Alex Salmond's Alba, while another, Margaret Ferrier, lost the whip after breaking the law

All three constituencies would be won by Labour. 

Labour shadow Scottish Secretary Ian Murray, who is the party’s only MP north of the border, said: “Scotland is ready for change and it falls to Scottish Labour to deliver it.

“The people of Scotland are sick and tired of Tory and SNP sleaze and failure.”

He insisted: “Scotland needs a fresh start with a majority Labour government. Under Anas Sarwar’s leadership Scottish Labour will continue to earn back the public’s trust so we can deliver the change that Scotland needs.”

The SNP's David Linden, whose Glasgow East constituency would, according to YouGov, go to Labour, said: “Voting SNP is the only way to get rid of unelected Tory governments in Scotland for good.

“The SNP is the only party in Scotland offering a real alternative to the Tories and pro-Brexit Labour Party, handing voters the opportunity to escape the mess of Brexit and rejoin the EU with the full powers of independence.

“A strong team of SNP MPs could hold the balance of power and we would use our influence to make sure Westminster takes real action to tackle the cost of living, protect our NHS, and ensure Scotland’s democracy is respected.”

A Scottish Conservative spokesperson said: “It’s clear that voters are increasingly turned off by the scandal and civil war engulfing the SNP and their obsession with independence over the real priorities of the Scottish people.”

Meanwhile, a Scottish Liberal Democrat spokesperson said: “In seats like East Dunbartonshire and Ross, Skye and Lochaber, we’re nipping at the heels of the failed SNP and offering a brighter alternative for communities.”