Could this be the thing that spells the end of the union?

The independence question and the blame game that goes with it is never absent from Scottish political life, but everyone knows that independence is as relevant to the here and now as sunglasses and a piña colada. There’s no chance of a referendum in the foreseeable and people don’t want one imminently anyway, even many SNP supporters.

But for those background figures on both sides of the debate who are ever vigilant to the possibilities, some extra information came to light this week that will have cheered one side and worried the other: people’s sense of national identity is changing, with our sense of belonging to the UK apparently weakening.

The results of the 2022 census show that the percentage of people who say Scottish is their only national identity has increased since the previous census from 62.4 per cent to 65.5 per cent. Not a huge increase, perhaps, but when you set that against what has happened to British national identity in Scotland, it looks more significant.

The percentage who said their only national identity was British did increase, from the low base of 8.4 per cent to 13.9, but the proportion who said they felt both Scottish and British plummeted, from 18.3 per cent to 8.2 per cent.

Clearly people’s sense of identity has become more polarised in the 11 years between 2011 and 2022.

But there’s something else interesting here. Those who feel wholly or partly British has fallen from 26.7 per cent overall to 22.1 per cent, driven by that huge drop in people saying they are both British and Scottish.

This is striking because that dual Scottish-British identity is something the founding mothers and fathers of devolution might have expected we’d all feel at this point. Fewer than one in 10 of us apparently do. It looks right now like it could almost die out. A purely Scottish identity, meanwhile, has become even more dominant.

The significance of this for the independence debate is this: that a strongly Scottish identity is associated with a greater likelihood of supporting independence. This is backed up by the Scottish Social Attitudes Survey which found support for leaving the UK increased by a whopping 33 percentage points between 2010 and 2019 among those who say they are “Scottish not British”. Since 2014, there’s been a gap of 50 percentage points in support for independence between those who feel wholly Scottish and those who feel wholly or mainly British.

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This suggests that the more people who shed their British identity, the better for the independence campaign.

But how could these trends change if the Tories are ejected from government? That’s the big question now.

The census was taken in 2022 at the nadir of Boris Johnson’s time in office, just before he was forced out for serial lying. Everyone was feeling the vicious bite of the cost-of-living crisis, and the folly of Brexit was writ large in the economic data. The SNP was still riding high, and Nicola Sturgeon was still haloed by comparison with her louche UK counterparts, though her political magic was starting to fade. The irresponsible behaviour of that Westminster government, a government Scotland hadn’t voted for, seemed to highlight a fundamental incompatibility of outlook between people north and south of Berwick.

But what if the Labour party were in charge at Westminster? How would that impact people’s sense of Britishness? Research on support for Scottish independence shows that it’s become associated with liberal values. Could a centre left, liberal Labour-run regime at Westminster that shared many fundamental values with the centre left, liberal SNP-run regime at Holyrood, help voters reconnect with their British identity?

We simply don’t know but it’s a possibility.

As someone with English parents but born, raised and living in Scotland, I’m surprised to find that a Scottish-British identity has become rather uncommon. My sense of identity is best described as fiercely Scottish in the south of England, British in the north of England and a tiny bit English in Scotland. These census results make me realise it’s a bit of a privilege to feel a degree of ownership of all parts of these isles.

A few years back, running along Offa’s Dyke on the Welsh-English border in the late afternoon sunlight, I had a wee moment. I drank in the gorgeous views on both sides of the border and considered it all mine, or as much mine as anyone’s. I’ve had the same feeling at the tops of Bennachie and Cairn o’Mount and Ben Nevis. Perhaps this has something to do with having English, Welsh and Northern Irish heritage.

Does wearing a thistle in one lapel and a white rose of York in the other allow you to take a more dispassionate view of the arguments for and against Scottish independence since you have a foot in both camps? I certainly won’t make that bold a claim. It implies that those with a firm Scottish identity are pre-programmed to support independence and that’s clearly untrue. There are plenty who are deeply and stubbornly sceptical about the wisdom of Scotland leaving the UK because they simply don’t buy the sales pitch. Some folk from elsewhere in the UK are enthused about independence. Searching, rational debate has always been central to the politics of the constitution and long may it continue.

Still, these latest census results matter. The link between national identity and constitutional preference is a guide not a firm predictor, but it still matters. If any incoming Labour government wants to ensure that changing sense of national identity doesn’t have unwanted constitutional consequences, then they must create a Westminster government that in words, actions and priorities is much more attuned to the preferences of Scottish voters.

The “indy question” may be on the back burner, but it never really goes away.