Nobody is allowed to disagree with Sturgeon. Not even SNP voters

It is a lesson which reinforces the depressing truth of Scottish politics, so long as it is fought over lines drawn by the constitutional question. There are two entrenched forces and a minority in the middle which moves about in response to transient matters which aren’t really about the constitution at all.

By far the most interesting poll during this period was the only one which achieved a decisive margin simply by framing the question differently. Instead of yes/no, it was asked as leave/remain at which point the majority against exiting the UK leapt to 18 points. Is our future to be determined by a form of words?

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Meanwhile, the only way to break free of this impasse is for public patience to wear thin with a constitutional stand-off that features far down most Scots’ priority list. That cannot be decreed by anyone from above. It will only happen through a slow, spontaneous realisation that Scotland is being taken for a ride by people whose sole claim to power rests on identifying with the cause of independence; a question which – in reality – is in abeyance for the foreseeable future.

So are we not entitled to demand something better in the meantime?

That question can arise in unexpected places. The obvious battlegrounds are health, education and the state of our public services. These are the ones that opposition politicians batter away at with a degree of success which is far more limited than they deserve.

The problem is that they all lend themselves to the politics of deflection, a currency in which all Nationalists specialise. For them, it can always be someone else’s fault – the “other”. Whatever failings arise are attributed to external forces, principally in the case of or own breed, the failure of “London” to send more money and release more powers.

It may all be nonsense in the eyes of their opponents but is normally a sufficient alibi to satisfy believers who do not wish their belief to be disturbed. The current danger for the SNP is that they have stepped outside that familiar, safe territory to provoke a response on an issue for which there is no such alibi and to many is a matter of conscience and concern which challenges blind political faith.

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Once that starts, where does it lead to? Some of the faithful might begin to wonder, if Ms Sturgeon and her people can get it so wrong on gender self-id for 16 year-olds by ignoring public concerns, maybe they’ve become too arrogant, maybe they’ve been there too long, maybe there’s more to life and political choices than independence which, let’s face it, isn’t on the immediate agenda….? A lot of “maybes” but once that ball starts rolling, it tends to gather pace.

If such territory of developing doubt exists, the SNP’s response has been unsubtle to say the least. Nationalism is an instinctively authoritarian creed of one nation, one party, one leader. The SNP has long made a virtue of iron discipline within its own structures. Questioning the party line is a capital offence as some of its more intelligent thinkers have found to their cost.

Even by that standard, the threats to those who have opposed the Gender Reform Recognition Bill are startling. In the face of irrefutable, case-based evidence to affirm doubts about self-identification, the position of the SNP leadership has been to dig deeper and ratchet up the rhetoric against those who have, let’s face it, been proven to be right.

All political parties have MPs and MSPs their leaderships’ might sometimes rather be without but democratic ones tolerate them and may even respect their adherence to principles. Tam Dalyell springs to mind as an MP of great worth who publicly disagreed about something with every Labour leader he served under but nobody ever stopped him standing. There are many such examples.

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Alyn Smith, a mercifully obscure SNP MP, kicked off the threat to dissidents on the Gender Reform Recognition Bill by telling them: “If you want to be an individual, stand as an individual and see how you get on”. The idea that there might be issues of conscience to which such rigidity of discipline should not apply did not appear to have entered his head.

Given the opportunity to repudiate Mr Smith’s dark warnings, Shirley-Ann Somerville did the exact opposite. Ms Somerville, who is in charge of educating Scotland’s children, invited Nationalist politicians who opposed the Bill to “question whether it is comfortable being in a party where you pick and choose the policies after you’ve been elected”.

Shirley-Anne Somerville, Cabinet Secretary for Education and Skills, said SNP politicians who opposed the bill should question whether they are comfortable being in the party (Image: Newsquest)

The obvious debating point would be to ask how many of the SNP’s manifesto commitments on, let’s say, education have been broken without any of them feeling uncomfortable. Attainment gaps? Teacher numbers…? But this is more fundamental than debating points.

If the SNP do not want opponents of the Gender Reform Recognition Bill within their Parliamentary ranks, why should they want the votes of millions of Scots who, across party lines, think what they are doing on this matter is deeply misguided?

The basic problem for Ms Sturgeon, Ms Somerville and their cohorts is not one of party discipline. It is that they are wrong and their opponents are right. This time, no amount of posturing in the Court of Session or the Supreme Court will persuade anyone otherwise.

And once that balloon of constitutional outrage is pricked, what is there left?