Douglas Ross will not be able to save Scots Tories from self-harm

Fortunately for film buffs everywhere, this is of course not real, and the odds of the story of these five groups of Conservatives MPs being adapted for the big screen are no greater than those of seeing 747’s filled to the gunnels with Rwanda-bound asylum seekers.

These so-called Five Families of Tory MPs do not even tell the whole story, of course, for they are merely the groups formed on the populist right of the party. They do not include what would, in Tory parties past, have been called the Wets, in other words those more centrist Tory MPs. When we include their groups, traditionally centred around the One Nation Conservatives, the total number of factions hits seven or eight, depending on who’s counting.

This is all very unedifying for the Conservative Party. The dividing lines between the factions have been drawn at times on the basis of the EU, and at times on the basis of taxation, and at times on the basis of the culture wars, but at the moment they are centred on immigration and asylum (which they fail utterly and intentionally to differentiate between, but that is for another day).

And, as tends to be the case with governments at the rear end of their time in power, the Tories have begun to talk only to themselves rather than to anyone outside the bubble. The next General Election, coming to us any time between March 2024 and January 2025 depending on whose predictions you wish to believe, will not be won or lost on immigration and asylum. Indeed, there is no polling evidence I can think of to support this assertion.

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By some distance, people tell opinion pollsters that their most important election issue is the economy and the cost of living. Amongst those recorded as likely to vote Conservative, immigration comes in second, but of course in order to pull off an unlikely victory the Government needs to attract back those voters who voted for it in 2019 but are now purporting to vote Labour. Amongst those likely Labour voters, immigration is well down the list, behind the economy, health, education and housing.

This is hardly a surprise. Asylum seeking, in particular, impacts a relatively small number of people in a relatively small number of places; the economy, public services and housing impact almost everyone.

The Five Families appear to believe that inflation and interest rates could be 20 per cent each and GP surgeries around the country could shut down, but as long as they got a plane off the tarmac bound for Rwanda they would still win the election. The voters will not agree, and indeed the personal ratings of the Prime Minister, generally stable since his ascent to power a year ago, have this month hit a low comparable to that of Boris Johnson’s nadir.

In the final analysis, little of this is likely to matter. The Conservatives are likely to lose the general election, whenever it may be, and they will then almost certainly be plunged into a leadership contest to determine who will tackle Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Government from the other side of the House of Commons.

After a few voting rounds spent dancing on the heads of various policy pins, the five or seven or eight factions will be narrowed down to two. ‘Twas ever thus. There will be a candidate of what would loosely be called the "right", but which I would contend could more accurately be called the populists, who will focus on immigration and culture wars and nationalism. And there will be a candidate of what would loosely be called the "left", but which I would contend could more accurately be called the liberals, who will focus on the economy and public service reform.

That the latter group is the one which has consistently been shown to be closest to the views of the general public, and consequently that it is the one which has tended to produce Prime Ministers, will matter little. The party will elect the most right-wing candidate it is offered as a reaction to defeat, and only when it realises that such a candidate cannot win a General Election will it select a liberal candidate who can.

Could Nigel Farage be the next Tory leader? (Image: Getty)

Who might we be treated to, this time next year? Suella Braverman? Probably not. Kemi Badenoch? More likely. Nigel Farage? Rule nothing out; never underestimate the ability of a wounded political party to misdiagnose the cause of the wound. Should you, reader, need any recent precedent of a party misdiagnosing its problem in the wake of defeat, and going on to debase itself, you need look no further than the Labour Party and Jeremy Corbyn.

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Fascinating for us in Scotland will be how the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party reacts to the election of a populist, if indeed that occurs. My own experience of working for the party was during its time of opposition in the early part of this century, during the transition from William Hague to Ian Duncan Smith, to Michael Howard and to David Cameron.

Hard as Scottish party leaders David McLetchie and Annabel Goldie tried, they were unable to meaningfully differentiate their own message from the overbearing smoke signals coming from Westminster. There is no evidence whatsoever that this will be any different this time around.

Douglas Ross is tough. He resigned from Mr Johnson’s Government in protest at Dominic Cummings retaining his job after his visit to Barnard Castle. He is not afraid to fight his corner. But nobody, Mr Ross included, can stop the wind.

The next few years are likely to be interesting and painful in equal measure for the Conservative Party in England. Ironically, though, despite Scotland being likely to be the Tories’ best-performing part of the UK in the election, that pain, and the angst about what the future should look like, may be felt most keenly in Scotland.