Tedros Ghebreyesus: There will be another pandemic

Two public health emergencies almost 200 years apart. So much has changed in that time, but so much hasn’t.

The pandemic exposed and exacerbated the vast inequities that are at the root of so many global health challenges.

The development of vaccines in record time was a triumph of science. But before a single vaccine had reached an arm, high-income countries had used their financial muscle to pre-order most of the world’s supply.

Dr Tedros Ghebreyesus (Image: free)

Lower-income countries were left behind, waiting for scraps.

We cannot allow the same thing to happen next time.

And there will be a next time. History teaches us that the next pandemic is a matter of when, not if.

It may be caused by an influenza virus, or a new coronavirus, or it may be caused by a new pathogen we don’t even know about yet – which is what WHO calls Disease X.

Covid-19 was a Disease X – a new pathogen causing a new disease. But there will be another. After all, every infectious disease has a case zero.

As things stand, the world remains unprepared.

To be sure, in response to the lessons Covid-19 taught us, WHO, our Member States and our partners have established several initiatives to make the world safer from future pandemics.

Together we have set up new mechanisms for improving the early detection of outbreaks, the sharing of biological samples and sequences, expanded regional manufacturing of vaccines and other tools, equitable access to medical countermeasures, and financing of preparedness and response capacities, especially in lower-income countries.

But there is still one key missing ingredient. One of the biggest deficiencies of the Covid-19 pandemic was the lack of global coordination and cooperation between countries.

It was, in many ways, an every-country-for-itself response. While sovereign governments have the responsibility to protect their people, a global threat demands a coordinated global response, in which countries work together to keep themselves and each other safe.

Glasgow was deserted during Covid - and the city has struggled to bounce back economically (Image: free)

It’s for that reason that in December 2021, WHO’s Member States met in Geneva and agreed to develop an international agreement on pandemic preparedness and response – a legally-binding pact to work together to keep themselves and each other safe.

When they started on this journey, countries set themselves a deadline of completing the agreement in time for adoption at the World Health Assembly in May of this year. That’s now just 11 weeks away.

There are currently two major obstacles to meeting that deadline.

The first is a group of issues on which countries have not yet reached consensus.

They’re making progress, but there are still areas of difference that need further negotiation.

None of them are insurmountable. If countries listen to each other’s concerns, I am confident they can find common ground and a common approach.

The second major barrier is the torrent of fake news, lies, and conspiracy theories about the pandemic agreement: That it’s a power grab by WHO; that it will give WHO power to impose lockdowns or vaccine mandates on countries, or stop travel; that it’s an “attack on freedom”.

These claims are completely false. WHO does not have the power to impose anything on anyone. We don’t want it, and we’re not trying to get it.

The agreement has been written by countries, for countries, and will be implemented in countries in accordance with their own national laws, just like other international agreements.

Since the end of the Second World War, the countries of the world have adopted numerous legal agreements in response to global threats: the Geneva Conventions; the UN Charter; the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty; the Paris Agreement; the WHO Constitution; and the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control.

All are binding agreements in international law to meet common threats with a common response; and none give the UN or its agencies any power over sovereign states or individuals.

So surely it makes sense for countries to agree on a common response to the common threat of pandemics – a risk that is increasing every day with environmental degradation, climate change, and the ever-present risks of zoonotic spillover.

We can’t know when the next pandemic will be, or how mild or severe it might be. But we can be prepared.

As Albert Camus said, “There have been as many plagues as wars in history, yet always plagues and wars take people equally by surprise.”

As the generation that lived through Covid-19, we have a collective responsibility to protect future generations from the suffering we endured.

Because pathogens have no regard for the lines humans draw on maps, nor for the colour of our politics, the size of our economies or the strength of our militaries.

For everything that makes us different, we are one humanity, the same species, sharing the same DNA and the same planet.

We have no future but a common future.

Dr Tedros Ghebreyesus is the director general of the WHO