Will the Munich car attack determine outcome of German elections?

Calmer voices say that such incidents, while deplorable, remain relatively rare. That the issue may be mental health rather than migration. That violence is by no means solely linked to Islamic migrants. That it may be connected to the Far Right or other groupings.

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Such voices may eventually gain an audience. But they may be drowned out in the week ahead as Germans prepare to make their choice of a newly elected Bundestag and a new Chancellor. For these are anxious, disquieting times in Germany.

The Wirtschaftswunder, the German economic miracle which saw rapid reconstruction and development, is fading. There have been two successive years of economic contraction. Even the mighty German car industry – a target for President Trump’s envy and revenge – is struggling, with sales and profits down.

It is important to keep such matters in context. Germany is still very definitely Europe’s largest economy, a powerhouse of industry. There is a drive under way to reform and regroup. But there are challenges from workforce costs, from the capital burden of green investment and from Chinese competition.

Alone, that issue of economic renewal would be sufficient to generate an electoral battle and engage the voters. Especially in the light of President Trump’s manoeuvres on tariffs and trade. But, just as in the UK and other countries, it is immigration which tends to dominate the political discourse.

Core to that discourse is a relatively new party, Alternative für Deutschland, or AfD. They started partly as a breakaway from the centre-Right CDU. But the AfD now offers a populist radical Right narrative. Their many critics label them extremist and Far Right. Their themes are familiar. Eurosceptic, favouring the repatriation of powers from Brussels. Hostile to the Euro currency. Firmly on the Right in social and economic debates. Backed enthusiastically by Elon Musk.

But their key topic, their leitmotif, is immigration. With that, they have found an issue which resonates with sections of the German population. Alice Weidel, their candidate for Chancellor, gets a hearing when she talks about remigration, or deportation.

The AfD is strongest in former East German regions, facing the challenge of breaking out from this base to win more support in the west of Germany. But their stance on irregular migration, linked in the public mind to the various urban attacks, provides them with a wider platform.

People light candles at the scene where a driver drove a car into a labour union demonstration in Munich (Image: AP)

Surveys find that they appeal particularly to young men who feel that modern Germany is not working for them. Some suggest that the Left’s focus on gender issues may also alienate such voters, building upon established discontent.

Now, the rise of the populist Right is a phenomenon which has been noted in other European countries. In France, Austria, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain, Italy – and the UK.

However, for historic reasons, it has particular salience in Germany. The leading German political parties are firmly aware of that. They will not contemplate any form of coalition with the AfD. But, according to polls, it remains possible that Alice Weidel’s party may come second behind the CDU/CSU, whose contender for Chancellor is Friedrich Merz. He is a plain-talking, pro-business social conservative who was previously eclipsed by Angela Merkel and left politics for a spell.

The CDU leader now offers to cut taxes, to cut welfare spending – and to curb immigration. Indeed, he landed in controversy when he advanced a non-statutory motion in Parliament on tougher migrant controls – which passed with support from the AfD. Merz insists he did not seek their consent – and would not work with them.

Truly, these are distinctive elections. For one thing, the timing was advanced by the collapse of Olaf Scholz’s government. The Social Democrat (SPD) Chancellor foundered over efforts to loosen Germany’s strict rules on debt. His traffic-light coalition – with the liberal FDP and the Greens – fell apart. Scholz appears relatively unpopular as a consequence with an electorate which yearns for stability.

As for the FDP, they may face a fight to surmount the five per cent threshold set by Germany’s proportional list voting system. The Greens too are struggling as voters resent the cost of new heating systems.

Again, a feeling of uncertainty – which I encountered personally while on a lecture tour of Germany. Personally, people expressed optimism. But they voiced general concern for the condition of their cities. And they tended to link that to immigration.

Now, that may not be well-founded. It may be exaggerated. But it is present in the collective psyche. It is discernible. And that imprecise feeling is decidedly germane in this contest.

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Sources I spoke to this week say Germans want their political leaders to end the squabbling, to work together. They hark back to periods of more stable governance in Germany – and sigh.

So might there be a grand coalition between the CDU/CSU and the SPD? That remains possible – if difficult to forge, not least because of that Bundestag vote on Merz’s immigration motion. The rhetoric right now from Merz is that the economy is in ruins under the SPD – and requires change. But a televised debate between Merz and Scholz was judged to be civilised by observers. Merz would prefer to keep the Greens out of government.

As ever, the electoral arithmetic will dictate the direction of coalition talks. There are other critically important issues, not least the war in Ukraine. Germany has supported Kyiv but the conflict has involved consequences for the economy throughout Europe, for example through energy costs.

For all the current problems, Germany remains an important friend and a significant global player. Definitely sustaining the potential to continue as a prosperous, cohesive and cultured ally. We watch with interest.

Brian Taylor is a former political editor for BBC Scotland and a columnist for The Herald. He cherishes his family, the theatre - and Dundee United FC