Former Secretary of State for Scotland Jim Murphy warns that the post-Cold War order is in jeopardy. With alliances of autocracies rising and hybrid warfare escalating, the UK must rearm — not just militarily, but economically and diplomatically. Scotland, he argues, is central to this new age of defence.
We live in the most uncertain of moments in the most complicated of times. The international rules-based order won by my grandparents' generation and confirmed by the collapse of communism may be in terminal jeopardy – unless we act. A conflagration of new threats, weaponised disinformation, and an alliance of autocracies now tests us. And we - the democracies of the world, despite all our flaws, must rediscover our strategic willingness to respond.
International organisations now agree on rules that they are powerless to enforce. Putin’s brutal invasion of Ukraine has shattered any remaining illusions that the Western security order can be upheld by anything other than hard power. Unfortunately, we and our allies now have to be strong enough to prevent a war; and should that deterrence fail then we must also be strong enough to win a war.
Renewed military power must be matched by patient diplomacy, the often unseen work of building alliances, projecting strength and resolve, and diffusing issues before they escalate.
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This new era will demand a fundamental recalibration of the British state. Public spending will be reshaped with a renewed focus on national security. It will be a whole of society effort necessitating resilience across many fronts including economic growth, industrial strategy, sub-sea cables, supply chains, infrastructure protection, food security, energy independence and much more.
Russia’s attempt to redraw borders through force means that Europe now contemplates the horror of a wider conflict on our continent. Violations of Polish and Romanian airspace in recent weeks has shown once again that Putin’s ambitions extend beyond Ukraine: Russia is seeking to destabilise NATO’s founding principle that unity is strength.
At a time when we have a less predictable partner in the White House, European NATO needs to do more.
And there’s no certainty that this age of American ambiguity will pass with this President. No successor to Trump – be they Republican or Democrat - will ever again accept that Europe’s protection is paid for with American taxes.
Recent years have also demonstrated that warfare is changing, both on the battlefield and beyond.
We have seen drones worth a few hundred pounds destroy multi-million-pound tanks and planes, upending the economics of war.
The pace of innovation in Ukraine is staggering, with capabilities and counter-capabilities being adapted on a weekly basis.
Beyond the battlefield, we are living through what is likely an open-ended period of undeclared state-on-state conflict.
This increasingly consists of cyberattacks, energy blackmail, sabotage of key infrastructure, and disinformation and social media campaigns designed to weaken national cohesion.
Read more in the series:
- Scotland would be first Russian target, experts warn
- UK shrinking military risks Starmer's battle ready focus
- David Pratt: Threats to our safety almost make the Cold War seem benign
With hybrid warfare being increasingly waged in cyberspace and to disrupt civilian infrastructure, national security can no longer be seen as a preserve of the military.
Instead, it needs to be an organising principle of economic, energy and industrial policy.
Closer to home and in every home, we also need to learn greater personal resilience. Everyone with an online presence is now exposed to conspiracies and ‘alternative facts’.
Increasingly these subtle campaigns are funded by Moscow or Beijing, with AI the most powerful weapon in the hands of malevolent state actors. Their aim is to undermine our attachment to democracy and to one another.
The war in Ukraine isn’t the cause of geopolitical competition; it's a consequence of it. But Putin’s war has crystalised the coordination between Moscow, Beijing, Tehran and Pyongyang.
Thousands of Iranian-designed drones have rained down on Ukraine, and North Korean troops have fought on the frontlines alongside the Russian Army.
Meanwhile Russia’s war machine is heavily reliant on China, which accounts for more than 30% of Russia’s export revenues. Beijing also provides over 40% of Moscow’s imports, including critical goods that support the Kremlin’s military.
This partnership looks set to deepen, with a major new pipeline capable of carrying an additional 50 billion cubic metres of gas annually from Russia to China announced during Putin’s recent visit to Beijing.
This deepening alliance demonstrates that Ukraine is a flashpoint in a wider geopolitical effort to uproot the post-Cold War global order and challenge democracy’s pre-eminence.
The UK must therefore prepare itself for a prolonged era of competition with an authoritarian alliance seeking to remake the international order.
This will be exacerbated as competition for rare earth minerals, water, energy and even access to space intensify, opening new fronts in the struggle for security.
With tensions rising in the South China Sea and the risk of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, the UK and European NATO allies are already preparing for the worst-case scenarios.
A Russian incursion into NATO territory would necessitate a hard power military response from the UK and our allies, at a time when the US is increasingly focussed on Asia.
Europe has the combined wealth, technology and population to stand up to Russia – what has been lacking is the political will and strategic coherence.
Poland’s Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, remarked on the absurdity of the post-Cold War settlement essentially boiling down to 500 million Europeans asking 300 million Americans to protect them from 140 million Russians.
The UK, as a leading European military power and a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, has a significant responsibility in this surge in defence and diplomacy.
The Government’s pledge to raise defence spending to 2.5% of GDP is necessary but given the volatile security picture it may only be seen as a floor rather than a ceiling.
Questions will persist over whether this spending trajectory alongside rejuvenated diplomacy, and agile intelligence gathering will meet the threat picture we confront.
But real deterrence is about more than a proportion of GDP figure or how many jets, boats and bullets a country can amass.
Deterrence also rests on the pace of our economic growth and the industrial base that sits behind a nation’s armed forces. Every major war in the last 150 years, including Ukraine, has demonstrated that industrial power is military power.
The UK Government has therefore rightly prioritised expanding the UK defence industrial base with the publication of this month’s Defence Industrial Strategy. The signal is clear: factories, shipyards and supply chains that underpin military capability are vital national security assets and will be supported as such.
Given the concentration of defence personnel, infrastructure, and industry north of the border, Scotland will be at the heart of this rearmament effort.
The Clyde hosts the UK’s nuclear deterrent and a substantial proportion of the Navy’s submarine fleet.
Lossiemouth is home to both the RAF’s Quick Reaction Alert force for the northern region and its maritime patrol fleet, which plays a critical role in monitoring Russian vessels in the North Atlantic.
Scotland’s shipbuilders are now also part of the national effort to protect us from malign foes. The Royal Navy’s Type 26 frigates are being built on the banks of the Clyde, supporting thousands of jobs in Scotland.
The recent historic £10bn export deal with Norway, the largest ever warship export deal by value, secures these jobs and Scottish shipbuilding for the long-term.
This landmark deal perfectly encapsulates the ‘defence dividend’ which UK Government Ministers have been keen to emphasise.
But it is also an example of strategic cooperation between two European navies that will be at forefront of combatting Russia, reinforcing NATO’s northern flank.
We are at a pivotal strategic moment. Volatility, instability and competition look set to be the defining features of this new security paradigm.
As we worry about the instincts of one American President it's imperative that we heed the warning from one of his respected predecessors.
In a speech that he was robbed of the opportunity to deliver, in 1963 President Kennedy had planned to tell Dallas “If we are strong, our strength will speak for itself. If we are weak, words will be of no help.”
Today, our rules-based international order which we’ve carefully nurtured, is being tested. It's imperative that the UK – and Europe – now invest in the strength of our hard power. If we don’t, the wise words of our patient diplomacy alone will be of no help.
The Rt Hon. Jim Murphy is a former Secretary of State for Scotland. He is also a defence and security specialist, and the founder of Arden Strategies.
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