The SNP Government has tried to rekindle hopes of a renewables jobs boom as the wait for ministers to finalise an energy strategy drags on
John Swinney has renewed discredited claims that green energy could power Scotland to prosperity in a cynical bid to breathe fresh life into the independence campaign as it enters a crucial six months.
The first minister trotted out the line about the prospect of a renewable energy bonanza in Scotland beloved by predecessors in a speech to galvanize the faithful as the SNP bids to secure a majority at Holyrood in the elections scheduled for May.
After getting drubbed by Labour in last year’s Westminster general election, the SNP must tackle the populist challenges posed by Reform UK.
“Just like oil and renewables rich Norway, Scotland has been blessed twice,” claimed Mr Swinney.
“We may have missed out on the full benefit of our oil and gas bonanza, but with our vast, low-cost renewable energy resource, Scotland has a second chance to get it right.”
The comments were made in a speech to launch the “It’s Scotland’s energy” campaign.
While Mr Swinney cultivates the image of a sober statesman, the speech showed he is as willing as noisier FMs such as Alex Salmond to play to the cheap seats for his political purposes.
It was made as the SNP Government tried to respond to major setbacks in its lacklustre drive to secure a just transition from fossil fuel dependence.
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Mr Swinney claims Scotland needs to be freed from the dead hand of Westminster if it is to make the most of its self-evident potential.
However, the setbacks have raised fresh doubts about whether low carbon energy will provide the economic boost expected. They make clear how dependent Scotland will be on the support of UK householders if it is to accelerate the drive to achieve net zero in the way the SNP Government hopes.
The first reverse the SNP Government suffered came amid signs investors are losing interest in the kind of pioneering development that Mr Swinney’s team hopes will fuel a boom in supply chain activity.
Ministers are relying on a new generation of floating windfarms to compensate for the fact that Scotland missed out on the economic benefits of the boom in investment in turbines fixed to the seabed off the country.
With most windfarm development contracts won by firms based outside Scotland, the number of jobs created in the country’s offshore wind supply chain has remained well below expectations
But the prospect of a floating windfarm bonanza dimmed last month after Shell pulled out of a flagship project.
The oil giant decided not to proceed with a plan to develop the huge CampionWind project which it had said would generate £3.2 billion work for Scottish firms.
Shell appears to have decided it can generate better returns for investors by focusing on the oil and gas business, which it knows well, than investing heavily in the emerging renewables development business off Scotland.
Days after Shell dropped its bombshell the Scottish Government tried to divert attention by highlighting signs that progress was being made on another floating windfarm project.
Deputy first minister Kate Forbes hailed news that the Scottish National Investment Bank had committed £50 million support for the Pentland floating windfarm project off the Dounreay coast.
"This investment means the Scottish National Investment Bank can work closely with the developer to support the Scottish supply chain, enhance innovation and boost job opportunities,” she proclaimed.
“We are leading the way in the floating wind sector but are ambitious to go further and take full advantage of the economic opportunities Scotland’s natural resources and technical expertise provide.”
But the Scottish Government-funded investment bank has agreed to pay a high price to secure limited benefits compared with those CampionWind was meant to deliver.
In their successful application for a ScotWind licence, the firms leading work on the Pentland project included the ambition that it could generate around £0.2bn benefit for the Scottish supply chain.
The Pentland deal underlines the price that wealthy international investors are likely to demand the public sector pays to persuade them to commit to big renewables projects.
The investment bank appears to be providing cheap risk capital that would help minimise the losses that financiers leading work on Pentland suffer if the plan goes awry.
The lead investor in the Pentland project is the Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners private equity business, which has around £30bn funds under management.
The UK Government has also agreed to provide £50m support for Pentland through the National Wealth Fund.
In his “It’s Scotland’s energy” speech Mr Swinney also claimed that investment in renewables would pave the way to energy price cuts in Scotland.
However, floating wind is much more expensive than established power sources.
The only technology that appears to be more costly is tidal energy, which SNP Governments have long reckoned has a big role to play in Scotland.
Firms working on floating windfarms and tidal energy projects secured generous official support in the latest round of the Contracts for Difference subsidy programme.
The costs of this are added to the bills of householders across the UK. These will also have to pick up the multi-billion pound bill for the cost of upgrading electricity transmission networks to take the power generated off Scotland to market.
If Scotland goes it alone it could not expect continued support from other parts of the UK for investment in renewables. That would leave householders in Scotland facing much higher bills. The Scottish Government could decide to settle for smaller scale projects but that would undermine its claims about the likely economic impact of renewables.
Mr Swinney has some gall reiterating those claims given the fact that successive SNP administrations have been unable to deliver on their promises to create thousands of renewables jobs.
Ministers have been good at announcing programmes with big budgets attached but hopeless at delivering on them.
A report on the £500m Just Transition Fund launched by Nicola Sturgeon in 2021, found it created just 120 jobs in its first two years.
As the third anniversary of the publication of the draft energy strategy Ms Sturgeon led on approaches, the SNP Government has not said when the final version will be published.
The draft strategy recommended a presumption against further exploration for oil and gas in the North Sea.
Asked for an update, a Scottish Government spokesperson told The Herald: “The judgements and issues in the Energy Strategy and Just Transition Plan are informed and influenced by ongoing developments in the UK Government’s energy policy and recent court decisions.
“We are taking sufficient time to analyse and reflect on those developments and their impact on Scotland.”
Following the floating wind setback, Mr Swinney’s bluster about Scotland’s energy looked even dafter after investors decided to give up on the £12bn carbon capture and storage project ministers are counting on to help Scotland achieve net zero by 2045.
This would involve capturing emissions from a cluster of industrial plants in Scotland and piping them offshore for storage in depleted oil and gas reservoirs.
Ministers have said that the Scottish cluster plan could underpin the viability of industries across Scotland and help to create thousands of jobs.
In her draft energy strategy, Ms Sturgeon demanded the UK Government support the cluster plan, although greens have warned it will help perpetuate the use of oil and gas.
After orchestrating noisy PR campaigns in support of the cluster, the lead developer, Storegga, put its stake in the project up for sale this month.
Mr Swinney responded by warning that Scotland faced an existential threat to its energy sector and by making clear he expected the UK Government to ensure the cluster plan would be saved.
He did not say how the bill for saving the cluster would be split with the Westminster administration if Scotland became independent.
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