Foreign policy challenge no 1: what Trump card will Burnham play?

But summer holidays end. Now the Prime Minister confronts a great many challenges. In the foreign policy realm, at the top of his red box is how he will deal with the most volatile, vindictive, destructive, dangerous American President in the modern era. I expect Burnham’s strategists are already gaming the options. What are Burnham’s available pathways?

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Is placating and feeding the beast a clever idea? Many have tried. Look at how French President Emanuel Macron faired. Great at first, with a fabulous Bastille Day Parade, then progressively worse, until a final break, and mutual mudslinging. Keir Starmer’s efforts also show this does not work and only gives a brief respite for the obsequious leader on bended knee. Starmer pandered to and placated Trump. Played to his ego. Handed him a hand-written September 2025 State visit invitation. King Charles did his duty and performed well. Sure, President Trump loved it, as he delights in all that is gold and gaudy. Yet days after the pageantry Trump returned to form, with late night attacks on Starmer and UK foreign policy, belittling the PM and hurling Truth Social attacks. The Starmer route of feeding the beast did not deliver. What might?

Burnham could try the "Mamdani Bet". When the democratic socialist Zorhan Mamdani won election as Mayor of New York, he was very popular, proposing left-of-centre policy fixes. Yet he accepted Donald Trump’s offer of a meeting on November 21, 2025. Given how disastrously these often go (the Oval Office meeting with President Vladimir Zalensky of Ukraine is the classic example) this was a high-risk gambit. Yet remarkably a charismatic Mamdani dominated the meeting, coming out unscathed with plaudits from the President, who said he would be "cheering for him.". hen Trump subsequently excoriated Mamdani it had less effect. The dynamic set at the outset, removed much of the sting.

Could Burnham replicate this success? Burnham is popular. He knows how to use social media to deliver messages and narratives that land with disengaged voters. Burnham also has a strong connection with regular working voters, as Trump also does, to a degree. The UK PM speaks in simple but plain language. Communication is his strongest suit. All this suggests that the danger of a Trump Oval Office visit is less for Burnham. The Mamdani route remains a gamble. For now, the Burnham team do not want to take the risk.

When Burnham has an Oval Office visit, could he take the route chosen by Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney? Right after Carney became Prime Minister, Trump sought to embarrass Carney in the Oval Office, spouting insulting rubbish about Canada becoming a US state. Disgraceful behaviour. Carney held his own. The clash between Carney, a principled articulate leader, and an angry embittered Trump, only grew from there, with collapsed talks and a now a full-on trade war. The US-Canadian alliance is in tatters. It will never be the same again.

Burnham today does not have the political space to go head-to-head in a clash with an enraged Trump. It will happen. But not now. It is too soon. Delaying the inevitable is the prudent choice. When the clash happens, Burnham needs to come out swinging and defend Britian and its interests. That is clear. And he must do two things to prepare.

First, and I hate to use the phrase, the "special relationship" zombie must be buried. The Prime Minister need not need announce it publicly – he can avoid poking the beast. But Burnham should resolve never to use the term and make sure all ministers do likewise.

Keir Starmer’s approach failed (Image: Getty)

Pax Americana, with the US-UK alliance within it, is at an end. Burnham must make sure policy scenarios and planning reflect today’s uncertain alarming muti-polarity. European Union leaders understand this. So must we. There is no going back. Uncertainty and clarity are better than delusion and disappointment.

Second, and this may be hard for Burnham to stomach, the only viable way to mitigate the impact of an angry US president is for the UK to lean closer to the European defence and economic institutions. This means more European collaboration and integration is essential to Britain’s current and future success.

The Prime Minister, in the past, made political hay out of his perceived coolness to repairing political and trade relations with Europe. Now, after his summer holiday, his government needs to take further coordinated and concerted steps to deepen the alliance with Europe and its leaders. Burnham has no other viable alternative. He must rebuild Britain’s alliance and trade connections with Europe, and in so doing strengthen his and Britain’s ability to weather unhinged imperial impulses of the Trump White House.

Crucially, British voters already agree: polls show they want more integration with Europe, not less. A decade in the Brexit wilderness has taught hard economic and political lessons. So, if Burnham continues Labour’s pivot back to Europe there is much to gain and nothing to lose.

Unfortunately, we must anticipate that with Trump, relations will get worse before they get worse. Burnham’s team must plan now, so the coming clash can be handed as best as possible, whatever choices they make.

Stuart PM Mackintosh is a financial author and economist who writes on international politics, trade, and climate change. His most recent book is Climate Crisis Economics: A Race of Tipping Points. He can be reached on stuart.mackintosh@outlook.com.