Why the Burnham bounce may already be coming to an end

Recall that the theme of Labour's 2024 general election manifesto was 'change', with the consequent annual conference billed as 'change begins' and 'the work of change has begun'. Promises were made over national renewal with five national missions of higher economic growth, safer streets, cleaner energy, greater opportunities and a healthier society through improved public services.

But by the time of the 2024 annual conference, there had been some significant stushies over freebies and donations. Recalling the donation of expensive free spectacles from Labour Lord Waheed Alli, Starmer should have gone to Specsavers.

Then there was also the Winter Fuel Allowance backlash over the decision to means-test and cut winter fuel payments for millions of pensioners. Lastly, in typical bank-manager style of old, Starmer used his key conference address to defend strict fiscal discipline and painful upcoming trade-offs, rounding this off by telling us that things would 'worsen before they improve'.

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It did not take the public at large very long to work out that the change that was needed was a change in Labour leadership as Starmer's poll ratings fell through the floor.

But those with more than just a passing interest in politics will know that changing the leader is not tantamount to changing the party, especially where policy is concerned.

Though having some kind of appealing personality profoundly helps, it is policy that is ultimately the vote winner, or loser. For better or worse, the leader can embody the policy. In the case of Starmer, poor policy was matched by poor personality.

Andy Burnham arrives in Liverpool on Saturday for the conference with an entirely different public mood around him and the Labour Party. Yet public perceptions can be problematic, if not also profoundly misleading. This is because the so-called Burnham bounce for Labour is over.

Labour's average polling began to improve in June 2026 from its low of under 20% as a result of the likelihood of Burnham becoming Labour leader and, thus, Prime Minister, as he did in mid-July, reaching 26% in late August 2026.

This was at the expense of Reform and the Green Party of England and Wales. Naughty Nigel's party has fallen from 31% in October 2025 to 25% today. Meantime, Zack Polanski's Greens peaked and fell from 17% in April 2025 to 11% today.

But since then, Labour has flatlined in polling and even shown a slight fall. Why does all this matter, especially as the next scheduled election is not due until no later than 15 August 2029?

First of all, there is some fevered Westminster speculation of Burnham calling a snap election in the spring of next year in order to secure his own personal mandate for power. If Labour's polling continues to flatline or decline, Labour would be hammered by losing over 200 seats and Reform would be the second-largest party in the House of Commons.

This merely highlights how shallow the so-called Burnham bounce is. Labour under Starmer was polling 10% more in the summer of 2024, even if that began to rapidly fall away soon after.

In this situation, a canny operator like Burnham would rather sit out the situation, but it would be at the expense of having the legitimacy of public support.

Second, general election or no general election, in a radical reversal of D:Ream's song used for Tony Blair's arrival in Downing Street, things will only get worse and not better.

The legacy that Starmer left, and that was left to him by the terrible Tories, is so enormous and so awful that, unless Burnham takes rapid and radical remedial action, he will go the way of Starmer. In short time, ignominy awaits.

Burnham started out with the warm words of 'good growth in every postcode' and 'hope in every heart' at the end of June as he launched his Labour leadership bid at the People's History Museum in Manchester.

As the former Mayor of Greater Manchester, but now MP for Makerfield, he traded heavily on his pitch of bringing the local bus network back under public control. Politics were also to be done differently.

Yet so far, there has been no discernible change. An October Budget looks likely to cement this trajectory. Indeed, in an age of ever more twenty-four-hour rolling news and the all-pervasive presence of social media, change cannot happen quickly enough for the public at large.

Though Reform and its leader, Nigel Farage, have had a torrid time this summer, they do still wait in the wings, ready to feed on the scraps of Burnham's perceived missteps and mistakes. The same is true for Zack Polanski and the Greens south of the border.

A critical staging post will be the St Pancras and Holborn by-election on 8 October. As Starmer's former seat, this by-election will take on added significance. Polanski is standing and has a fair chance of winning despite the unhelpful wild card of George Galloway also standing. But anything other than an emphatic win for the incumbent party, and therefore also Burnham, will not do for Labour as it languishes.

As the Tories close the party political conference season on 7 October, the St Pancras and Holborn by-election the next day may well be looked back upon as the beginning of the end for Burnham and his all-too-shallow bounce. Delighted Labour Party delegates this year will be displeased and disappointed this time next year. Whether they will be mutinous remains to be seen.

Professor Gregor Gall is a research associate at the University of Glasgow.