Lessons from Scottish referendum for border poll in Ireland

Ms O'Neill became the first nationalist First Minister at Stormont after her republican party Sinn Fein won the election to the Northern Ireland Assembly in May 2022.

The victory renewed focus on the prospect of an Irish border poll with the Good Friday Agreement, signed in 1998, allowing provision for such a referendum if certain conditions are met.

The First Minster said she believed there could be a vote in Northern Ireland on Irish reunification by 2030 and that there were lessons to be learnt from what happened in Scotland. The pro independence side lost by 45% to 55% to the pro-Union side in the referendum in September 2014.

"I believe we are in a decade of opportunity and I do believe it is time for the question to be put to the people," Ms O'Neill told the Herald on Sunday.

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"That is the outcome of the Good Friday Agreement itself. We the people will decide when there is constitutional change. For me the lessons we learned from the Scottish situation and the Scottish independence referendum [is] you need to have the facts on the table, you need an inclusive conversation.

"What education looks like, what health looks like and let's try and advance those arguments to convince people that are yet to be convinced about constitutional change. I am less concerned about being specific on a date. I do believe it is in this decade that we will have the referendum."

The leaders attending the British Irish Council meeting on Friday, pictured outside the Dalmahoy Hotel and Country Club near Edinburgh (Image: Andy Buchanan/PA Wire) She stated that on the timetable she was "pointing towards 2030" and continued: "The conversation that's happening around constitutional change right across households, businesses, communities, is really alive and I think that is quite encouraging.

"Let's have more of that. Let's have the space to have a mature debate around what it all looks like."

Asked if she would want the UK Government to be neutral, after Starmer previously said he was a Unionist, she said: "I think he has tried to adjust his position somewhat.

"He is now the Prime Minister of Britain. He has a co-guarantor role in the Good Friday Agreement. He must make sure that Good Friday Agreement is adhered to. It is an international agreement and the principle of consent, the people will decide the constitutional position. He should play a role as a co-guarantor and that is the only faithful role he needs."

Pressed, if that meant he should be neutral, she added: "He should be. But the time will tell."

Deputy First Minister Emma Little-Pengelly, of the DUP, agreed that there were lessons that could be learnt from Scotland relating to the constitutional debate in Northern Ireland.

However, she told the Herald on Sunday she and her party do not want a border poll and do not believe conditions set out in the Good Friday Agreement have been met for one to take place.

She said the result of the general election in Ireland, won by Fianna Fail, whose leader Micheal Martin said during the campaign a border poll was unlikely within five years.

"I think of course there are many lessons to be learnt from the Scottish referendum and I do think on reflection they may believe it was premature to have a referendum.

"But it sent a very clear message - it settled the question not just for the decade but I believe for some considerable time. The people spoke and they indicated they didn't want for Scotland to go independent at that time.

"In terms of Irish re-unification as it's referred to. The Irish election sent a very clear message as well. I think people want to get on with the business of government.

"They want to their political leaders to fix the issue that matter most to them. I would say those are issues of health, education, of fixing our public services. I believe that what people are focused on and that is what I will be focused on...getting on with that work and not being distracted by those constitutional issues."

She added: "I do believe the Irish election was a set back for the Irish unification campaign and I will be moving forward with my strong pro-Union message, why Northern Ireland is stronger and better in this United Kingdom.

"The Prime Minister has indicated in the past that he is a Unionist and I would hope that he would see the value of keeping this United Kingdom together...As I said I won't be preparing for any such referendum."

Formed in the wake of the Good Friday Agreement in 1998, the BIC was set up to promote intergovernmental relations and Friday's talks, held in Edinburgh, were the 42nd meeting of the forum.

The main item on the agenda were discussions covering the opportunity green power presents for the British and Irish economies and how to share best practice across the UK and Ireland.

Irish Taoiseach Simon Harris was also present at the BIC summit, as was Tanaiste Micheal Martin.

As well as Scotland’s First Minister John Swinney, Welsh First Minister Eluned Morgan other ministers from the devolved administrations as well as the chief ministers of the Isle of Man, Jersey and Guernsey also attended the BIC.

Alongside the Prime Minister, Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster Pat McFadden represented the UK Government.

A UK Government spokesman said: "In accordance with the Good Friday Agreement and the Principle of Consent, Northern Ireland will remain part of the UK for as long as its people wish for it to be.

"There is no clear basis to suggest that a majority of people in Northern Ireland presently wish to separate from the United Kingdom."