Glasgow by a street.
Twenty points at least. By any sensible measure -league positions, current Test players, big game experience - Glasgow are miles ahead of Edinburgh in the build-up to their back-to-back 1872 Cup clashes. The Warriors will walk it.
Except, of course, that we said all this last season, when Glasgow's advantages over Edinburgh were probably even starker. Glasgow were powering away impressively in the PRO12, while Edinburgh were languishing disconsolately near the bottom of the table. And yet the games were astonishingly close.
Edinburgh should have won their home fixture at Murrayfield last December as they dominated the first hour, only for Glasgow to stage a comeback in the final quarter to squeeze home 20-16. In the weather-delayed return match at Scotstoun four months later the Warriors seemed to be cruising, but this time it was Edinburgh who produced a flourish, closing the gap with a flurry of tries before losing 37-34, a frustratingly narrow margin.
That's why Glasgow coach Gregor Townsend is taking nothing for granted this time. "They have quality players and they always play their best against us," he said. "The two games last season were both within a score at the end. We know they will rise up for it, so we have to rise up for it too.
"When we played them at Murrayfield last season they had just had a really good run. I think they had won five out of six games. That was similar to the kind of run they are on now."
Unbeaten in Europe this season, albeit in the lower-tier Challenge Cup competition, Edinburgh looked impressively efficient in beating Treviso 48-0 - their highest winning margin for five years - at Murrayfield on Friday. If ever there was a danger of complacency in the Glasgow ranks, that result should serve as a warning.
"I was impressed by them," Townsend said. "To score six tries shows that they were clinical, while winning in Europe has given them confidence. They have won away from home twice as well, so they won't be afraid of coming to us first."
It is, of course, a cliche to say that form goes out the window on these occasions. But it also happens to be pretty close to the truth. In fairness, in this age of Glasgow dominance, Edinburgh have not beaten their mates from the other end of the M8 since January 2011, but they have rarely been humiliated.
"In that first game, I think we were ready for them," said Edinburgh coach Alan Solomons as he reflected on last season's contests. "We were prepared. I think the physicality we brought in that first game put us in with a chance of winning. In the second game, we perhaps adopted a style of play that they weren't expecting, and did very well."
What counts against Edinburgh at the moment is their inconsistency - their habit of backing up good wins with desperate losses. They are also still in the midst of the injury crisis that has dogged them since the start of the season, although things may be levelled up by the fact that Glasgow players have lately been dropping like flies as well.
But Solomons is under no illusions. "Obviously it is going to be a massive challenge," said the South African. "They have had stability over a long time, they have a settled side and settled coaching staff. Edinburgh haven't had that. I think we're starting to make some good progress now, but Glasgow have established themselves as one of the top sides in the PRO12.
"They have also done very well in Europe this season and their game against Toulouse at Scotstoun could definitely have gone their way. They are a very good side. They've got the bulk of the Scottish internationals."
Given the multi-national look of the Edinburgh side these days, the inter-city games might not be considered the quasi-national trials they have been in some recent seasons. Yet the fact that Glasgow players dominated the autumn international selections still means something.
"They know the importance of the games, as we do," said Townsend. "There are rivalries."
Not all of them healthy. "There were a couple of things in the Murrayfield game last season that suggested that players were going a wee bit away from the game plan to have their one-on-one battles," Townsend smiled. "That's always going to happen because there is emotion in the game."
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