VERN COTTER, Scotland's head coach, is convinced that Japan will "throw away" their opening game in the Rugby World Cup in order to put maximum effort into their subsequent match against his own team.
The Japanese begin their campaign against South Africa, who are strong favourites to win Pool B, on Saturday 19 September. They play Scotland four days later, and Cotter is certain they will see that as the critical fixture in their bid to upset the odds and go through to the quarter-finals as pool runners-up.
Japan are Scotland's first opponents, followed by the USA then South Africa. The Scots' last group match, against Samoa, is widely regarded as the fixture most likely to decide which teams go into the knockout stages, but Cotter believes that his players cannot afford to presume they will win their first two group games.
Speaking at the Scotland squad's camp in the Pyrenees, where the players have been on exercises with French commandos, the New Zealander warned that his men have to be prepared for some tough times in training to give themselves the best chance of beating the Japanese and the Americans. If they do beat both those countries and go on to lose to South Africa, only then will Scotland have the chance to claim a place in the quarter-finals by defeating Samoa.
"We have to think about what Japan are doing now," Cotter said. "We know they'll be prepared to die for their country.
"The Americans won't be far away in the amount of work they're doing, and we have to do the same. We've got to be pushing ourselves. We can't become comfortable.
"Japan have openly said that they're targeting us. They play South Africa first and they'll probably throw that game away and look at us.
"So we can't make any errors there: there's no complacency whatsoever. It will be so important to focus on that one. The first two games will be critical."
Before those matches, Scotland will have four warm-up games to get through - against France in Paris, Ireland in Dublin and home and away against Italy. Those fixtures were agreed by Scottish Rugby before Cotter took up his post, and the coach knows that he can do little more than keep his fingers crossed and hope his team do not pick up too much injuries just weeks out from the start of the World Cup.
"I always worry about that type of thing, but in saying that it's an opportunity for players to showcase their improvements and express themselves after a hard pre-season," he said. "There will be players who perhaps play for the first time for Scotland in those games. We'll be juggling to make sure we get the balance right."
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