STATISTICS have a vital role to play in many walks of life, and there is no denying that in sport, too, they can be informative and even entertaining. But there is a danger in paying too much attention to them - a danger that Glasgow Warriors must take care to avoid this week if they are to give themselves the best chance of reaching the PRO12 final.
Coaches, sports scientists, and sometimes players too, talk of paralysis by analysis: the tendency to assess a situation in such minute detail that you rob yourself of the ability to change it in your favour. In the case of rugby, for example, paralysis by analysis could arise when a coach spends so long schooling his squad on what the opposition might do that he squashes their ability to think for themselves and do something creative or instinctive.
Over-reliance on statistics can have a similar effect - let’s call it statatonia. You spend so long before a certain match analysing or merely dwelling on a particular statistic that it ends up not only having an effect on the way you think about the game, but also on the way you play.
If the stat in question shows that teams in your particular situation have rarely ended up by winning the match in question, it stands to reason that your obsessive interest in it can become a self-fulfilling prophecy. The opposition still have to go out and do their job, of course, but the unconscious attitude with which you take the field makes their job just that little bit easier - and, in a tight contest, that little bit may easily be the difference between victory and defeat.
It’s weird, really. Stats are supposed to be the most objective and scientific aspect of sport, and yet fans, players and coaches alike can all come to believe in their power in an almost superstitious fashion.
The salient stat as far as the Warriors are concerned, of course, is the one that says no away team has ever won a PRO12 semi-final. The play-offs began back in 2009-10, and on every occasion the team that earned a home semi thanks to finishing in the top two went on to win.
Now there is no doubt that home advantage plays a part in sport. It would be foolish and counter-productive to suggest otherwise.
But, while admitting that it will be extremely tough to win at the Sportsground, the champions need not be intimidated by that stat. Instead, they can use it as an incentive, telling themselves that they have the chance to go out and make history. And they can also look back on past semis, and remind themselves of the very narrow margins by which that 100 per cent home record survived.
Last year at Scotstoun, for example, Ulster were 14-9 up on Glasgow with just five minutes to go. It was not a statistic that undid them, but a piece of brilliance by Finn Russell, whose long looping pass put DTH van der Merwe in for an equalising try, which Russell himself converted to win the game.
It was a similar story in the other semi, in which Munster beat Ospreys 21-18. Neither that result nor Glasgow’s win over Ulster was set in stone beforehand, and the same is true of this weekend’s semis. Indeed, by the time the Warriors take the field in Galway, Ulster could already have won in Leinster. It would be a small but welcome sign of encouragement for the Scottish side.
AND ANOTHER THING . . . .
EDINBURGH endured a dismal end to the season, finishing ninth in the PRO12 table after losing their last three games. But at least since then they have come up with two positive pieces of news - first the move to Myreside, announced last week, and now the signing of Jason Tovey.
The 28-year-old Welshman made his Edinburgh debut against Zebre last month after arriving on loan from the Dragons, and has now agreed a permanent move. It was obvious from the confidence and composure he showed against the Italians that Tovey could be a big asset to the capital club, and, besides anything he does on the field, his competitiveness and professionalism should provide a real boost to a squad whose morale too often and too easily takes a downward dip.
The big question, however, is whether Edinburgh will make the most of him. Duncan Weir is arriving from Glasgow in a transfer designed to give him more game time at No 10 and thus be of more use to Scotland. Given the presumed influence of the national management in that move, it would be extremely difficult for Alan Solomons, Edinburgh’s head coach, to select Tovey ahead of Weir week after week.
Tovey can also play at full-back, where teenager Blair Kinghorn may not be ready to play every week, but there is no point in signing a man of his ability merely to be utility back-up. Getting the most out of him is likely to become one of the more pleasant problems Solomons has to contend with next season.
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