EVERYONE - pundits, journalists, your mate down the pub - is always eager to tell you when they get a prediction right. “Told you so”, they announce in real life, on social media, or wherever they can get some attention after a correct forecast of a score.
What they don’t announce, of course, is the number of predictions they get woefully wrong - predictions that they insisted were a racing certainty. Because these usually make up at least 90 per cent of the total, and if we were reminded of that fact we wouldn’t be so impressed on those rare occasions when they get something right.
Bearing that in mind, it’s probably best that you ignore everything that follows in this column. (What do you mean, you were planning to do that already?) Or at least don’t put any money on it. Or at least if you do put money on it, don’t blame me for your losses when my predictions, as usual, turn out to be hopeless.
Anyway, we all like to make predictions at this time of year, so, having got those excuses in first, here are my four key forecasts for Scottish rugby in 2017.
First, Scotland will finish in the top half of the Six Nations Championship. They were just a point away from doing so last year, ending up with two wins - against Italy and France - compared to Ireland’s two wins and a draw. They lost to England, Wales and Ireland by six points, four points and 10 points respectively, so were not outclassed in any game.
The final match in Dublin was a loose, chaotic affair, as so many games on the last day of the tournament now tend to be, but otherwise the campaign was typified by steady progress. Vern Cotter was under some pressure at the start, as his team had lost all five games the previous year as well as the last two in 2014, but he dealt with it well, ensuring his side kept trying to play the kind of adventurous game he had identified as the only way Scotland could compete with the best teams.
With three games at home this year, and key players such as Finn Russell and Jonny Gray continuing to mature as they gain experience, Cotter has to be in a good position to sign off with a relatively successful season. Predicting a victory at Twickenham into the bargain would be foolhardy, but a win at the Stade de France is not beyond the Scots.
Second, Scotland Women will win a match in the Six Nations. A more modest prediction for Shade Munro’s team, but modesty befits a team that has not won a game in the championship since beating France 10-8 at home back in 2010. They drew with Italy that year too, 6-6 in Rome, but have since lost 32 games in a row in the tournament.
So why should we be optimistic about such a dreadful run of results coming to a very welcome end? Simply because, after years of neglect compared to the growing professionalisation of other nations, Scotland under Shade Munro are beginning to construct a highly competitive squad. They still only have one professional player in Jade Konkel, but others such as Lisa Martin and Emma Wassell are professional in all but name.
Munro’s first task was to make his team harder to beat, something they certainly were in the World Cup qualifying tie against Spain late last year. The next step, now that their fitness levels and organisation have improved, is to return to winning ways. That return may have to wait until the final weekend, when they play Italy at Broadwood, but if and when it is achieved, it will represent significant and overdue progress.
Third, Glasgow Warriors will reach the PRO12 play-offs. Their aim is to reach the quarter-finals of the Champions Cup as well, of course, and on current form they should do it, at least as one of the three best runners-up from the five pools.
In the league, they are at present out of the top four only on points differential, having ended a run of three defeats with the victory at Murrayfield on Boxing Day. A lot depends on how they cope during the Six Nations with their top players away, but Gregor Townsend has rotated his squad well so far, giving some fringe players valuable experience in preparation for extended runs in the starting line-up.
Fourth, Edinburgh will fail to reach the top half of the PRO12. This, alas, is the most plausible prediction of the four by far. Six full seasons have passed since Edinburgh last finished in the top six of the league, and the odds are now heavily in favour of six becoming seven. With just over half of the campaign gone they are currently 14 points behind sixth-placed Ulster, who have a game in hand.
Yes, one or two teams in the upper half-dozen may suffer a slump in form, but Cardiff Blues, just five points off the pace, are well placed to take advantage of that. Edinburgh have lost eight and won just four of their 12 league games to date, with lack of consistency being their biggest drawback.
So three out of four forecasts are relatively optimistic. A fifth prediction, you say? Very well. The planet will continue to be ruled by narcissistic sociopaths for the foreseeable future. Now that is a racing certainty.
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