THERE could be no better start to Edinburgh’s new life at Myreside than a resounding victory that takes them into the quarter-finals of the Challenge Cup. They should get the victory all right when Timisoara Saracens visit on January 20, but to ensure that such a result takes them through to the knockout stages in Europe, Edinburgh will first have to deal with Harlequins in London on Saturday.
Winning both their remaining matches would all but guarantee that Edinburgh finish top of a group that also contains Stade Francais, and would certainly ensure they end up no lower than second. And, with the five pool winners plus the three best runners-up going through to the last eight, a second-place finish on at least 23 points would definitely take them into the last eight.
On the other hand, they could also lose to Harlequins - whom they beat 36-35 at Murrayfield in their best display of the season in October - yet still go through as long as they beat the Romanians in their last game. A losing bonus point would help, as would another for scoring four or more tries, and even then they would still be dependent on results elsewhere. But at least they would go into that last game with their hopes still alive.
Such permutations are at the same time the appeal and the irritant of European rugby’s qualification system. With the Champions Cup also operating the pool-winners-plus-three format, the appeal in both tournaments is that the race for a last-eight place tends to be wide open until the final round of matches, which helps increase both interest and excitement.
The irritant, conversely, is the random factor. You can finish runner-up in a tough pool yet fail to go through as teams in weaker pools have accumulated more points. When two Italian teams were in the Champions Cup, which then had six groups with the winners and two best runners-up going through, we invariably knew from the time the draw was made which pools would provide those runners-up. The Italians were weaker than the rest, which meant the format effectively undermined the competitive element.
The five-pools format has at least reduced this tendency, and Edinburgh have arguably benefited by being drawn in the same pool as Timisoara, probably the weakest team in the Challenge Cup. So two sides should go through from Pool Five.
In Pool One, meanwhile, Stade Rochelais and Gloucester are both on 15 points and have already played each other once. If they both dispose of Bayonne and Treviso they will qualify.
Pool Four is similar: Bath and Cardiff are on 13 points, and each have to play Bristol and Pau. Bristol are not out of it yet, but again, two wins apiece should see Bath and Cardiff go through.
Edinburgh had this weekend off, and last played on Hogmanay, when they battled to a 24-19 league win over Zebre in Parma. “To get the win was important for the group,” Hodge said after that result. “They’re a young team, and I think that when we start winning games we build confidence and we can kick on. There’s still a lot to work on, but it was great to come here and get the win.”
It will be even greater - and even tougher - to do the same thing at The Stoop on Saturday.
Challenge Cup Pool Five, remaining fixtures:
Sat 14 Jan: Timisoara Saracens v Stade Francais (noon)
Harlequins v Edinburgh (3pm)
Fri 20: Edinburgh v Timisoara Saracens (Myreside, 7.35pm)
Sun 22: Stade Francais v Harlequins (1pm)
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