Hearts continued their remarkable start to the new Scottish Premiership season with a hard-fought 1-0 win over Motherwell on Saturday. And once again the defining goal came from none other than Steven Naismith.
The Scotland international now has eight goals from his first nine games and although Craig Levein and Austin MacPhee have built an impressive, new squad there’s no doubt that the former Kilmarnock and Rangers forward has proved to be a crucial spark of inspiration for the Jambos.
Naismith did well enough last season to warrant a second, consecutive loan spell from Norwich with four goals and four assists in just 16 games. However, while many may have expected the 32-year-old to begin showing signs of slowing down, he’s seemingly getting even better this time around.
In last season’s league campaign Naismith was averaging 0.31 goals per game and 0.15 assists per game. Although we’re only five games in to the new Premiership season, those numbers have increased dramatically to 0.56 non-penalty goals and 0.38 assists per match. And when we break down Naismith’s ability to score and create goals a little further we can see what parts of his game are thriving in this new Hearts team.
When it comes to Naismith’s ability to create chances for his teammates, we really begin to appreciate just how smart a player he is and how the forward can pick teammates out in the final third as well as any playmaker.
Naismith isn’t attempting more runs or dribbles than he was last season, but the amount of shot assists (passes that lead to a teammate taking a shot) has increased from 1.08 to 1.5. And his passing in and around the opponent’s box has improved dramatically too.
So far in this season’s Scottish Premiership no player has made more deep completed passes (i.e passes in to the opponent’s box) than Naismith, who has made 10 in his first five league games. And the accuracy of those passes has increased from last season’s 43.8 percent to 66.9 percent. This was perhaps most notable in the forward’s through ball for Peter Haring in the 4-1 win over Hamilton or his headed assist against St Mirren.
Essentially, Naismith is laying off shots to his teammates at a faster rate than last season but has also dramatically increased the amount and accuracy of the passes that he’s using to find teammates in the opposing box from one game to the next.
Remarkably, his goalscoring has also shown a notable upswing this season too. Naismith’s average xG (expected goals) per match has shot up from 0.11 last season to 0.52 in this current Premiership campaign and as previously noted when we take out his two penalties the Hearts forward is still averaging just over a goal every second game for the Tynecastle club.
What may explain Naismith’s new-found proficiency in front of goal is just the sheer amount of shots and goal-scoring opportunities he finds himself in this season. While the 32-year-old’s proportion of shots hitting the target hasn’t changed all that much since the summer - a slight increase from 49 percent to 54 percent - Naismith is currently averaging 2.44 shots per match for Hearts, which is over three times as many as he was last season.
This actually fits in with Hearts’ overall change in style quite well. Levein’s team as a whole have seen their average shots per game go from 9.56 to 17.47. To put that in to perspective, the Tynecastle club have gone from the fifth worst in the division for number of shots on goal per game last season to averaging more attempts on the opposing goal than Celtic, Rangers and every other team in the Premiership this time around.
Naismith once again finds himself at the centre of that. Despite playing as an attacking midfielder rather than a traditional striker, the on-loan player sits fourth in the Premiership’s shots table after five games and accounts for 22.5 percent of Hearts’ shots from outside the box. Although a notably opportune moment, Naismith’s fifth goal of the season against Motherwell was a perfect example how deadly he can be outside the box.
Hearts show no sign of slowing down in their hunt to maintain their remarkable 100 percent record in the Premiership and as long as Naismith is creating and scoring goals seemingly at will it’s hard to see if or when they’ll drop points.
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