FOLLOWING Wednesday night’s 2-1 win over FK Sarajevo, Celtic have progressed to the second round of the Champions League qualifiers in relatively straightforward fashion. The team from Bosnia-Herzegovina gave Celtic a scare in the first leg when they took the lead around half an hour in to the match, but ever since Mikey Johnston leathered in an equaliser in Sarajevo, Celtic’s progress to the next round rarely looked in doubt.
Next up, Celtic will face Nomme Kalju after the Estonians dispatched Macedonian champions Shkendija in the previous round on away goals. Like Sarajevo in the first round, Nomme Kalju represent something of an unknown for Celtic. So what kind of challenge are Neil Lennon’s side likely to face?
An examination of Nomme Kalju’s performances against Shkendija tells us a lot about the kind of opposition Celtic will be up against. The Estonians progressed to the second round by virtue of the away goals rule, losing 1-0 at home before pulling off a surprise 2-1 win in Macedonia. But when we dig into the numbers of these two fixtures, the results are enlightening.
READ MORE: Neil Lennon praises Celtic players for staying calm in face of Bosnian boot-boys
To say Nomme Kalju were battered over the two legs would be something of an understatement. The Estonian champions clearly prefer to cede possession and play in a backs-to-the-wall manner; in their home tie, for instance, Nomme Kalju had just 28% possession. Away from home, they were necessarily a little more adventurous but still only enjoyed 36% of the ball during the game.
Nomme Kalju’s success in the previous round depended heavily on their ability to shut out the opposition but even then, the Estonians can count themselves fortunate to have progressed. Over the two legs Shkendija hit 47 shots compared to Nomme Kalju’s 11, with a far superior expected goals (xG). The Macedonians had a total xG of 3.18, while Nomme Kalju only mustered 1.17.
Neil Lennon was hesitant to complain about the physical approach of the FK Sarajevo players on Wednesday night and if Nomme Kalju’s foul count against Shkendija is anything to go by, the Celtic players will need to prepare themselves for another battle. The Estonians committed 47 fouls in the last round compared to Shkendija’s 13.
READ MORE: Celtic 2 FK Sarajevo 1: How the Celtic players rated as they march on in Champions League qualifying
It is worth pointing out that Nomme Kalju are currently at the mid-way stage in their domestic season and are therefore more likely to be match-ready than Lennon’s side. However, despite steamrolling their way to the title last season - Nomme Kalju won 25 of their 36 matches and didn’t lose a single league match - things haven’t gone quite as well this time around for Roman Kozhukhovskyi’s side. At the halfway stage, Nomme Kalju are sitting in fourth place, some 10 points behind league leaders Flora.
It looks as if Celtic will be playing a stubborn opponent, then, and one that will not roll over easily. The Estonians typically line up in a traditional 4-4-2 and look to hit their opponents on the counter; something that Lennon will need to ensure his players are adequately prepared to defend against. Celtic will undoubtedly be the favourites to make it to the third round but as we all know, the early qualifying rounds are rarely simple to negotiate and Lennon will be under no illusions about the threat that Nomme Kalju pose.
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