For those with an inclination to take a punt once in a while, there is every chance that any money will be foolproof on an assumption that Arsenal, Kieran Tierney and Celtic will tangle all the way until the final hours of the transfer window.
But if this week has shown anything, it is just how little the London club did their due diligence before starting the ball rolling as they made their move for the Scotland internationalist.
Monday night’s strategic leak that Arsenal had flounced away from the negotiating table and taken their ball with them suggest a club who have had few dealings with Peter Lawwell before. Having been on the other side of this story often enough as Celtic have moved for domestic targets, the phrase don’t kid a kidder came to mind.
Celtic put their cards on the table with the fee they want for Tierney from the first formal note of interest from Arsenal. Anything else that offers the sun and the stars and all on the never-never was not going to wash with a club who do not need to sell for financial balance.
But if Arsenal misjudged the fact that a Scottish club did not swoon and jump at the sight of the chequebook being waved, there is a feeling that nor did they appreciate the hold Celtic has on Tierney. That is not to say that the 22-year-old would have turned his back on a move; indeed, it’s understood that the full-back was intrigued by the prospect of playing for one of the big six in London with a chance of mixing it at the very top level week in, week out.
Aside from competing at the very top level, the finances on offer in terms of salary at Arsenal were life-changing too with the player easily expecting to triple his current wages. He is by no means poorly paid where he is now but there are few of us whose head would not be turned by the figures quoted by the English side.
Tierney would never be the type to agitate, however, if the move does not come off. If Arsenal were hoping that Tierney might throw the toys out of the pram and help tip the move, it was a dubious strategy. The Celtic academy graduate has kept his own counsel as the merry-go round has went into full swing this summer, resisting even the urge to bite back at sections of his own support who questioned his commitment to the club when the prospect of the move was raised as Celtic stand on the cusp of a nine-in-a-row season.
But Arsenal’s posturing and poker strategy these past few weeks has invited criticism from their own support for not delivering a player long wanted by Unai Emery. Desperate to appease their fanbase and avoid further flak there seems an inevitability that they will return again to Celtic to try to find some common ground from which to secure a deal.
What is interesting, however, is that the entire affair can remould the perception within which Scottish football is held south of the border. There has long been a snubbing of the nose at what is on offer and a lack of trust from bigger clubs when it comes to signing players in Scotland.
When in charge at Liverpool, Brendan Rodgers was unwilling to take a chance on Virgil van Dijk when the world’s most expensive defender – made so by the fee Liverpool eventually paid for him – was on the cusp of leaving Celtic.
Like Victor Wanyama there was a feeling that there had to be a stepping stone to the lower echelons of the English top flight to prove he could handle it before the next move could follow. Tierney could well break that stigma this summer if the saga concludes with him heading to the bright lights of London, as many still anticipate that it will before the window concludes.
But Celtic are also right to set a precedent not just for themselves but for Scottish football.
The idea that wealthier clubs can pinch players for a bargain fee because the league is outwith the big five in Europe is a nonsense. Ironically, that was a point Rodgers was always keen to make during his time at Celtic when he insisted that those days had been and gone.
That stance was evidenced as Celtic banked £20m for Moussa Dembele after a bitter transfer window last summer, albeit in fairly unusual circumstances.
But the idea that the Parkhead side would roll over as soon as a club showed interest in one of their poster-boy success stories was always going to risible.
The ball is in Arsenal’s court at the minute with every chance that it will be Celtic’s turn to bat back before the English window closes on August 8th.
And another thing...
Leigh Griffiths has known dark days in the last year or so.
Few, then, should begrudge him his moment in the sun that came on Wednesday night.
Whipping a free-kick into the top corner of the net as Celtic steamrolled their way past Estonian minnows Nomme Kalju, Griffiths announced his return onto a stage that many thought would not come again for him.
And if that is good news for Celtic, it can only be welcomed by Scotland manager Steve Clarke.
Griffiths might not be out of the woods in terms of his mental health and he clearly still has a way to go physically after missing six months of football but he is capable of producing those Kodac moments for both club and country.
And how Clarke could do with a few of them as Scotland look to engineer a way through the European qualification phase and shake off the two-decade monkey that weighs them done.
Russia and Belgium will be at Hampden in September for a double header that will be pivotal for shaping Scotland’s ambitions of advancement.
A fully fit and switched on Griffiths would be welcomed with open arms by Clarke.
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