HEADING into the Edinburgh Derby just over a month ago, the writing looked on the wall for Craig Levein. The Gorgie club were rock-bottom of the league, without a league win since the 30th of March and were suffering from an injury crisis.
The 2-1 win over their rivals was important and morale-boosting in equal measure, as these victories tend to be. Hearts were lifted off of the foot of the table and have lost just once since; a 1-0 defeat to Kilmarnock at the start of October. Penalties were required to knock Aberdeen out of the Betfred Cup but Levein will surely be delighted to have a semi-final against Rangers to look forward to later this month.
Things have undoubtedly improved at Tynecastle, but there is still some way to go until Levein can be said to have the Edinburgh club truly back on track. But over the last few weeks, we are beginning to see signs of progress on the pitch: a trait that was sorely lacking during Hearts' poor start to the campaign.
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Where have Hearts improved?
Most notably, in defence. Before the match at Easter Road a month ago, Hearts were leaking goals at the back. In the five games beforehand, the capital side were conceding over two goals per game in each league fixture on average; since then, that has dropped to less than a goal a game.
This is somewhat surprising, given the fact that the Hearts defence has probably gotten worse - on paper, at least - during this period. Injuries have ravaged Levein's team all season and nowhere has this been more keenly felt than in defence.
John Souttar hasn't featured since the 3-2 defeat to Aberdeen at Pittodrie on the opening day of the season and with summer signing Craig Halkett also sidelined through injury, the Hearts defence is well and truly decimated. Yet, they are performing better as a unit than they have all season.
Against Rangers on Sunday, Levein was forced to deploy Michael Smith - a full-back - in central defence alongside Christophe Berra and to the Northern Irishman's credit, he played well. Levein deserves his fair share of credit here, too: the former Scotland boss has clearly been working on the defensive side of his team and Hearts are conceding fewer shots than they were previously.
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Where have things gotten worse?
At the other end of the park, Hearts are really struggling for goals. The long-term absences of Steven Naismith and Conor Washington obviously do not help in this regard but there is no question that the capital club are becoming increasingly blunt in attack. Hearts scored seven times in their first five league fixtures this season but have scored just three in their last four games.
Uche Ikpeazu, as industrious as he is, is not a composed finisher and cannot be relied upon as a regular source of goals. Steven MacLean has failed to replicate his St Johnstone form since moving to Tynecastle a year ago and age may well be finally catching up on the veteran striker. Aside from this pair, Levein has no other recognised striker to call upon.
Attacking midfielders like Ryotaro Meshino and Jamie Walker can chip in with the odd goal here and there but until Naismith returns, Hearts look decidedly light up front.
What are the biggest issues?
The single greatest hurdle that Levein has to overcome is how to set his team up against supposed lesser opposition. It sounds counter-intuitive but Hearts generally defend better against the league's better teams despite generally conceding more. Hearts typically allow 12 shots on goal per league fixture but in the games against Aberdeen, Celtic and Rangers, that figure dropped to eight per match.
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This leads us to assume that Levein is simply better at setting his team up against better opposition than other teams of a similar stature. Ross County (17), Hamilton (14) and Kilmarnock (15) had more than twice as many shots as Rangers did, for example, which leads to one conclusion: Levein's tactical system is not built with these games in mind.
Adding more weight to this theory is the evidence that the majority of Hearts' goals scored have also arrived during games against the Premiership's top sides. Hearts scored in each of the matches against Aberdeen, Celtic, Motherwell and Rangers but drew a blank against Ross County, St Mirren and Kilmarnock. There is a clear pattern here: Hearts do well in matches where they are required to be defensive and attritional, and struggle in games where the opposition does the same.
Hearts' results may have improved a little, but the same issues still remain: in the games that they should really be winning, Levein's tactics make life very difficult for his side. Injuries have played their part but until the Hearts boss finds a solution, the Gorgie club will continue to struggle.
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