SCOTLAND will end their international year as they began it this afternoon, with a game against Ireland in Dublin. Back in February they lost just 19-12 in a Six Nations match they believed they should have won with something to spare. Ten months on, this Autumn Nations Cup third-place play-off is the ideal opportunity to put that mishap right, and to show how much they have progressed since.
There has been evident improvement already, with a run of five victories including an impressive victory over France at Murrayfield and a rare win in Wales. But when the French returned to the national stadium last month in far better fettle and ended that run, there was a feeling that Scotland had plateaued; that this group of players, at least, had become more consistent and tougher to beat, all right, but were not yet ready to beat the very best.
If they win in Ireland today for the first time in ten years, they will have shown that feeling to be misplaced. And some of the omens are good: not only have they left the disappointments of the World Cup far behind them, they are coming up against opponents who have had their teething troubles under new head coach Andy Farrell and have even looked a little stagnant in recent games.
Yet, while there are certainly grounds for optimism, there are equally reasons to be cautious. For one thing, Gregor Townsend has chosen not to field his most experienced side in the interests of squad development. He has rested Edinburgh openside Hamish Watson, for example, for a game in which the breakdown battle will probably be decisive, and he has handed a debut at stand-off to Jaco van der Walt rather than giving another cap to the tried and trusted Duncan Weir.
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In contrast, Ireland have Johnny Sexton back after he sat out their laboured win over Georgia. It was the Leinster 10 who scored all the points for his team in February, and Stuart Hogg, for one, is well aware of the massive threat that he poses.
“I think he’s an unbelievable rugby player, hugely experienced,” the Scotland captain said last night. “He drives any team that he’s involved in around the field incredibly well.
“Defensively we’ll have to be on the money. We can’t go chasing him or trying to put a big hit on him, because he’s more than capable of distributing and putting boys away through the hole. Maybe last year we went chasing him and he managed to put boys through holes and it ended up in tries. He’s an unbelievable talent and one we’re going to have to keep an eye on.”
The Exeter full-back has a fair amount of talent himself, of course, and since becoming captain he has steadily communicated his unshakable self-belief to the rest of his squad. While alert to the threat posed by Sexton and by the rest of a very battle-hardened home side, Hogg feels inspired, not intimidated, by the prospect of taking on such opponents.
“Ireland have picked their best 23 or definitely 15, so that's a challenge in itself,” he continued. “But we want to take on the best Irish team possible, because we believe we can beat Ireland's best.
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“We've learned a lot about ourselves as individuals. We've learned a lot about what it takes to win at the highest level – boys have got more experience than we had this time last year at the end of the World Cup.
“We've enjoyed this year. Obviously results could have been better, but we feel that we're making strides in the right direction. I’ve just loved the group energy that we’ve brought on a daily basis - the willingness to learn and get better. We’ve had a lot of fun on and off the field and it’s just a pleasure to be a part of it.”
Having said that, Hogg added that he would prefer a dull win to an entertaining defeat any day of the week - an attitude which perhaps encapsulates just how much this Scotland team has matured. The best sides in the world never apologise for winning ugly: they just march off the field content with the victory then move on to the next challenge.
And certainly an away victory today, if it happens, is unlikely to be a thing of beauty. To beat Ireland you have to get the better of the arm-wrestle, with lots of girning and grunting along the way. Scotland are capable of doing that, but you suspect they will have to get absolutely every aspect of their game spot-on if they are to finish an encouraging year on a heartening high.
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