The Tenner Bet has spent some time reflecting on a recent holiday.
The trip was up north; a relaxing affair spent on beaches and in restaurants with one notable exception: an activity day at a harbour-front inflatable assault course. The swim out to the pumped-up blue barge spoke of events to come with gulps of salt water consumed in the first couple of strokes, an undignified assent of the half-collapsing steps before a leg over the top to the relative security of the floating dock.
After a couple of excursions around the course, came a plunge from a great height off a 20ft inflatable that left me lying at the bottom of a wall with my ankle entangled in rope. I was briefly reminded of George Best's infamous line about the hotel porter asking him where his career had gone wrong whilst he reclined on a bed with the then Miss World, a bottle of champagne and a boatload of cash from the casino. Although at no point in Best's story did a group of people gather around him to point and snigger.
It is, of course, the perfect metaphor for this column. Where has it all gone wrong, indeed? That has been the question of the last fortnight for The Tenner Bet as two trebles have sunk without a trace
The answer is a mite obvious: failing to prepare, whether it's months of sedentary existence prior to a trip to a water park or cursory research for a sports betting column, it inevitably ends in ignominy and mirth among peers. With that in mind, a book has been ordered: Soccermatics by David Sumpter, an app has been downloaded and websites have been visited.
The book is in transit so there will be no pearls of wisdom this week but the app and stats sites are fully operational even if the user browsing them is not. So let's put the old cou sur le billot as they used to say in Revolutionary France.
Arsenal might have got off the mark in the EFL Cup in midweek but let's consider the facts: a 6-0 win over West Brom, who have got off to a hot start in the Championship, might look impressive but Valerien Ismael rested most of his starters while Mikel Arteta fielded a strong team, no doubt looking to kickstart his side's season. It will be a different matter in the early kick off when they travel to Manchester to face the champions, City, who have won each of their last five against the Gunners at home. The 3/10 about Pep Guardiola's side makes for little appeal but if you pair it with under 3.5 goals (a 73% chance apparently) then it yields a much more attractive 11/10.
The next preference is for Leicester. Granted they took a hiding off West Ham on Monday night but you've got to factor in the early dismissal of Ayoze Perez in that game. Consider, too, that Leicester only lost one of the away games they started as favourites last season and it's easy to get on board with them – especially since they have won five of their last six away games against promoted sides.
Elsewhere, the aforementioned West Brom look well placed to capitalise on their rest from cup duty when they travel to Peterborough, whose manager Darren Ferguson has never managed to oversee a win against the Midlands side in six attempts. The two sides were separated by two divisions last season and that has been borne out by their respective starts to the campaign.
Treble: Man City to win, under 3.5 goals (11/10), Leicester City (10/11), West Brom (3/4) Pays: 6.02/1
Season's total: -£20.00
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