LET'S get the England match out of the way first. Scotland won without being as good as they were at Twickenham last year, and England should have been home and hosed at half-time, such was their dominance of territory and possession in the opening 40 minutes. Having scored from the best single piece of attacking play in the first half, Scotland deserved to take something from a period in which the magnificent dark blue defence kept out England, but to be actually leading at half time was bordering on the miraculous.

The game turned on key decisions made by the referee – and he got them all right. Luke Cowan-Dickie’s late rush of blood to the head was always going to see him sin-binned but referee Ben O’Keefe rightly called a penalty try and then correctly denied England the penalty they sought at those late scrums where all of Stuart McInally and WP Nel’s vast experience and Pierre Schoeman’s great strength showed – if anything, having watched it several times, the first reset scrum in overtime should have been a penalty to Scotland as Nel forced the English to collapse.

England head coach Eddie Jones’s errors were appalling. It was Marcus Smith 17, Scotland 10 when he subbed the youngster with replacement George Ford giving Finn Russell more space that he used to great effect. Obviously playing to Jones’s game plan, Smith, Ben Youngs and Freddie Stewart kicked away possession, but Townsend had out-thought

Jones and invariably there was a Scottish player waiting for the ball. As for the Joe Marler mix-up at the end, Jones admitted he had made a mistake because he wanted three back rowers on, leaving poor Marler to make an erse of himself.

So now to Cardiff and Wales and what I will say right away is beware of the wounded dragon.

Scotland won the Calcutta Cup because of that extraordinary defensive effort for which defence coach Steve Tandy must take huge credit. But can Scotland mount such a stonewall defence for the second week running?

I believe they must be prepared to all put their bodies on the line again because the Welsh pack will look to run over the top of their opponents to give Dan Biggar the ball and space he needs – and if he gets it, Scotland will be in deep trouble.

Wales will come at Scotland from the outset because they always do at the Principality Stadium which, in what I believe is a boost for Scotland, will not have its roof closed even in pouring rain – Covid-19 rules again. Scotland showed on Saturday that rain is no great obstacle to them playing an attacking game and you can expect Finn Russell’s boot to be a huge factor again.

Scotland must not let themselves be affected by the Welsh crowd, and indeed must seek to silence them by piling on to the front foot as soon as they can. The Cardiff crowd can be a fickle thing, and Scotland need to make them mutter, for a Welsh mutter can say more than a Shakespearean soliloquy.

Wales will not be as poor as they were against Ireland, but unlike Scotland, theirs is a team in transition and they will miss the injured stalwarts North, Leigh Halfpenny, Alun Wyn Jones, Ken Owens, Josh Navidi, Justin Tipuric and Taulupe Faletau – no team could do without those talents and perform to a similar standard.

Head coach Wayne Pivac has been trying to bring in youngsters, but as they showed against Ireland, they are having to be blooded when clearly they are not quite ready.

Though I am worried about the outcome, because you never really know which Scotland will turn up, nevertheless I believe this is Scotland’s best chance to secure four victories in a row in the Six Nations for only the second time.

Regular readers will know that I am a great believer in the IRB World Rankings as an indicator of a nation’s true standing compared to others. On Monday after the first round of the 2022 Six Nations, there was proof positive that Scotland are an improving side as they leapfrogged Australia to lie sixth in the rankings table. Ireland went up to third, and England slipped down to fourth, but what’s this? Is that really Wales at number eight, two behind Scotland? Indeed it is and the rankings give me genuine hope that we can go to Cardiff and get the victory needed to march on in this championship.

What also gives me hope is the genuine strength in depth in the Scotland squad. In previous seasons the loss of such a major player as Jamie Ritchie might have seen the Scots downcast, but I think Townsend will call on Magnus Bradbury to take Ritchie’s place – the Edinburgh man actually started his Scotland career at No.6 against Argentina in the 2016 Autumn Test.

If he plays, Bradbury will require to be at his defensive best as will all the Scots – and that’s how we can win on Saturday in Cardiff.