Where Killie need to improve against Hibs at Rugby Park

Back to league business this week after a short hiatus from the Premiership.

The winter break has proved productive for Derek McInnes, with players and staff getting a well-earned rest, some quality signings secured and a place in the fifth round of the Scottish Cup booked.

On the latter, blink and you’d miss it. I certainly missed the first goal while waiting on a Killie pie! For much of the game, Dundee controlled the ball and stroked it about nicely, particularly in midfield. Naturally, it was to be expected that there would be a drop-off after racing into such a commanding position early doors. As the game edged towards the hour mark it became clear that Matty Kennedy was struggling at left wing-back, so the introduction of Corrie Ndaba was pivotal. The balance of the team was far more assured from that point on and the win was relatively comfortable come full-time.

If he’s fit, at this point it’s almost essential that Ndaba plays. He’s a terrific player first and foremost, but the fact he’s left-sided just helps with the make-up of the starting XI. He’s physical, quick and can contribute on the wing while also making sure he defends. He has the traits that will certainly stand him in good stead in the future, especially if he plays in the English Championship for Ipswich or another side. Let’s enjoy watching him while he’s in blue and white stripes – and continue his song to the tune of Tequila!

Greg Stewart and James Balagizi have signed in the time since I last penned these ramblings. Both players have rightly been met with excitement from the fans. The former in particular caught the attention of Killie supporters and the wider public given his previous performances on these shores. Stewart might be 34 in the coming months, but even with his few touches of the ball against Dundee, his class and ability clearly haven’t diminished from his time in India. It’ll be great to see him up to full speed. As I pointed out on social media, to have Stewart, Armstrong, Kennedy, Watkins, Vassell and Mackay-Steven in the team’s attacking armoury is tremendous. It accentuates how far the club has progressed since this time last year, let alone the Championship win in April 2022.

We needed a centre-mid with both Brad Lyons and Kyle Magennis out for the foreseeable, so Liverpool prospect Balagizi fits that profile. The club has backed McInnes to recruit in that position to ensure we’re not left short. Considering the main priority was to bring in another striker, it’s safe to say the window has been a success so far. Credit must also go to Lochlin Highet and Scotty Symington for their creativity upon Balagizi’s announcement. Top work, lads.

Any business now is highly likely to be outgoings, with one or two potentially allowed to leave to trim numbers. It’s understood Killie will keep an open mind on deadline day, but McInnes is happy with his squad.

Hibernian are the latest challenge for Ayrshire’s finest this Saturday. Nick Montgomery’s side will head into the game having played Rangers on Wednesday evening in one of their two games-in-hand. Both matches against the Edinburgh outfit have been tight affairs, with the first finishing 2-2 at Rugby Park in September, and the last outing at Easter Road ending in a 1-0 defeat for Killie.

READ MORE: Time for Kilmarnock to create new Scottish Cup memories

Looking at the match statistics from the draw, given it’s a fairer comparison as a home match, as per Statsbomb, everyone connected with Killie should be relieved that Martin Boyle is not available this weekend. The winger is on international duty with Australia at the Asian Cup. He had three of the visitors’ 11 shots, giving him an xG return of 0.49. Hibs’ overall xG that day was 1.20 compared to Killie’s 0.67. One of these chances fell inside the opening 20 seconds after slack play from Killie’s kick-off. Boyle also had the highest on-ball-value score of any player on the pitch of 0.44, which as previously mentioned in this newsletter, is defined by a possession value model that objectively and quantitatively measures the value of each event on the pitch. Boyle produced one key pass in the game, two passes into the opposition’s box and also impressed with his defensive actions, making four tackles and interceptions. Joe Newell, James Jeggo and Lewis Miller also performed well that day judging by the same metrics.

Killie’s best player that day, statistically speaking, was Danny Armstrong. He produced the highest xG, although it was low compared to Boyle, with a 0.14 score. The 26-year-old had four shots in the game. It was his passing that really helped to make the difference though, he produced six key passes, one of those being an assist, as well as eight passes into Hibs’ box. Armstrong also did his defensive duties as he ranked among the highest in the team for tackles and interceptions with three. Only Magennis trumped him with seven. His OBV score of 0.11 was lacking though, as David Watson came out on top with 0.32.

Despite Killie’s lower xG to Hibs’, the hosts had 16 shots compared to Hibs’ 11. Five of these were on target; four for the visitors. Hibs had more possession but only had a slightly higher pass completion rate of 76 percent to Killie’s 70. Killie had far more pressures on their opponents with 190 to 114, with their regains of the ball highlighting the determination and hard-working nature of the team.

The key for Killie looks to be in not allowing Hibs too much joy in an attacking sense, a clear strength of theirs, while trying to impose themselves as the home team.