It is the day before the final poll which will trump all the rest as Scotland votes on who will make up the next parliament at Holyrood and which party leader will be first minister. 

But as the countdown to election day slips narrower by the hour, a rash of new opinion polls this week have suggested the result is still very muich in the balance and will depend on which party mobilises their supporters best.

The SNP have been predicted to win a majority during the past few weeks, but this scenario now appears to be on a knife-edge, while the Scottish Green Party have been forecast to make big gains.

The race for second place between the Conservatives and Labour has also varied widely, But Douglas Ross' party now appears to be in the ascendant.

And Alex Salmond's Alba party could be staring defeat in the face with few polls giving it a chance of picking up a seat. Though with a target of around 6% of the list vote, there could be an opening in one of Scotland's regions.  

Here's what the polls have been saying today as Scotland's 2021 election heads into the final straight. 


Nicola Sturgeon is hoping voters turn out

Savanta ComRes, The Scotsman

The SNP could miss out on a majority by six seats in the Holyrood election, a Savanta ComRes opinion poll for The Scotsman suggests.

The survey projects that the SNP will secure 42% of the constituency vote and 34% of the list vote. This would see it return 59 MSPs, four below the 2016 result, with 65 needed for a majority.

However, there would still be a pro-independence majority in the Scottish Parliament as the Scottish Greens are projected to return nine MSPs, three more than in 2016, with 9% of the list vote.

The poll projects the Scottish Conservatives will return 30 MSPs, one down on 2016, with 25% of the constituency vote and 23% of the list vote.

Scottish Labour is predicted to return 26 MSPs, two more than five years ago, with 22% of the constituency and 19% of the list vote.


Willie Rennie's Lib dems will be looking to pick up seats

According to the poll, the Scottish Lib Dems will secure 8% of the constituency and 6% of the list vote which would see them return five MSPs, no change on 2016.

Alex Salmond’s Alba Party would return no MSPs, according to the poll of 1,001 Scottish adults aged 18 or over which was carried out between April 30 and May 4.


Anas Sarwar is fighting his first election as leader


Survation, The Courier

A poll for The Courier, by Survation, projects the SNP will gain a majority and return 66 MSPs, with the Scottish Conservatives in second place on 24.

The poll also predicts Scottish Labour will secure 23 seats, the Scottish Greens will return 11 MSPs, the Scottish Lib Dems five and the Alba party none.

On the question of independence it found that 48% would vote Yes to Scottish independence if a referendum on the issue were held tomorrow, while 52% would vote No, when do not knows are excluded.

The Survation poll was based on responses from 1,008 adults in Scotland and was carried out between April 30 and May 4.


Douglas Ross is also campaigning as leader for the first time 


The Ipsos MORI survey put the SNP on course for an overall majority, but warned the result remains “hanging in the balance” as up to a fifth of likely voters say they could still change their mind. 

The Ipoll forecast Nicola Sturgeon’s party would emerge from tomorrow’s election with 68 MSPs, three more than the 65 required for a majority and five more than she won in 2016.

However it also found that among likely voters, 17 per cent said they could still change their mind on their constituency vote and 21% said it of their list vote.


Ipsos Mori calculated the Tories would stay in second place on 27 MSPs (down four from 2016), while Labour would get 19 (-5), and the Liberal Democrats four (-1).

Like many recent polls, Ipsos Mori also showed a surge in support for the Scottish Greens, who were forecast to almost double their MSPs, from six to 11.

With just 2% of the vote, Alex Salmond’s Alba party was forecast to win no MSPs.


Patrick Harvie of the Greens could be leading an expanded group next term

4th May - YouGov, The Times

The Times published its final survey on Tuesday evening, which suggested the SNP is set for a four-seat majority.

The YouGov poll of 1,144 Scots, released just hours before the last televised debate, put the SNP on 52% in the constituency and 38% on the regional list, and suggests the Scottish Greens will take 13% of the regional vote.

It also found 45% of people would vote Yes in a referendum on Scottish independence while 55% would vote No, when undecided voters are excluded.

Modelling by polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice has the SNP on 68 seats, a majority of four, while the Greens will take 13 seats, more than double their current haul of five.

The Alba Party would also pick up a seat after receiving 3% of the vote, with the seat likely to come in the Mid Scotland and Fife region – where it received 7% of the vote in the YouGov study.


Eva Comrie, right, would be Alba's only MSP if the Times is correct

A seat for Mr Salmond’s party would see Eva Comrie take her place in Holyrood among 81 other independence-supporting MSPs.

The Scottish Tories, according to the poll, are set to win 26 seats, down five from the last election, but will retain a tight hold on second place as Labour could drop to 17 seats – losing seven.