For much of Scotland, May has been a month when spring did not arrive.
The leaves may be out on the trees, flowers may be blooming, but there's been precious little sunshine, unseasonal temperatures and a lot of wind and rain.
But while unpredictable weather is a hallmark of the Scottish climate, analyists have found that the rain, sun and wind faced by some areas is far harder to predict than others.
A study of weather patterns north of the border examined Met Office averages geing back to 1971 and monthly climate reports from 2001 onwards.
Using a complex algorithim to work out each areas's 'unpredicability score' out of ten, the researchers pinpointed the council area where weather is hardest to predict.
READ MORE: Scotland set for 'very unusual' temperature record
And while it might be difficult to judge how often gales visit Scotland;s windswept islands, or how much rain will fall on Edinburgh, the analysts say that one area tops the lot.
West Dunbartonshire, buffeted by the ever-chaning weather drifting up the First of Clyde, was said to be the local authority region with the most unpredictable weather.
With a total score of 6.84 out of 10, Scottish district had both unpredictable rainfall (8.76), windspeed (8.96) as well as sunshine (7.35).
Coming second was the Shetland Islands, which received a final score of 6.61 out of 10 due the the difficulty in plotting periods of sunshine (9.97) and humidity (7.89).
West Lothian was placed third, with an average unpredictability score of 6.43 out of 10 overall. The area's highest ranking variable was humidity (9.1).
Renfrewshire was said to be fourth, having been awarded especially high unpredictability scores when it came to wind speed (9.94). This resulted in an average total unpredictability score of 6.31 out of 10.
Completing the top five, with a total score of 6.26 out of 10 is the City of Edinburgh.
Despite having unpredictable humidity (9.43), Edinburgh’s temperatures remain consistent, scoring just 2.33 for unpredictability in this category.
The research was carried out by energy comparator website SaveOnEnergy.com/uk.
But while forecasters face an unenviable task trying to work out Scotland;s weather this month, the heavy rains have at least given them some concrete data to work with.
Met Office meteorologist Annie Shuttleworth said the UK as a whole has seen 131 per cent of the usual May’s rainfall already.
However, with an average 91.2mm across the nation so far, the UK is well off hitting the record 131.7mm recorded in May 1967.
READ MORE: Arctic winds bring end to sunny spell
Ms Shuttleworth said: “We have seen a lot of rain over the past week. But there is a good deal of uncertainty in the forecast, so we’re hoping by the end of May we will have much drier and more settled weather across the UK.
“If this drier weather does come in, it looks like it will scupper any rainfall carrying on and accumulating as it has at this point in the month.”
Linda Dodge, of SaveOnEnergy, said: “May has given us a wide variety of weather conditions, which left us wondering, is this likely to continue throughout the summer? And if so, where are the most unpredictable districts in Scottish located?
"To understand which areas are likely to have the most confusing weather this summer, the team at SaveOnEnergy.com/uk collected monthly climate observations from the Met Office datasets, filtering the data to only include June, July, and August.
"We then looked at the sunshine hours, rainfall, average temperature, wind speed and relative humidity records to see which district had the biggest changes in climate variables in the summer."
She added: "As you can see from the results, most of the Scottish districts rank highly for unpredictable rainfall and wind speed in the summer months.
"If this prediction of ours comes out to be correct, the people of Scotland would be wise to be prepared for all types of weather in June, July and August this year.”
Why are you making commenting on The Herald only available to subscribers?
It should have been a safe space for informed debate, somewhere for readers to discuss issues around the biggest stories of the day, but all too often the below the line comments on most websites have become bogged down by off-topic discussions and abuse.
heraldscotland.com is tackling this problem by allowing only subscribers to comment.
We are doing this to improve the experience for our loyal readers and we believe it will reduce the ability of trolls and troublemakers, who occasionally find their way onto our site, to abuse our journalists and readers. We also hope it will help the comments section fulfil its promise as a part of Scotland's conversation with itself.
We are lucky at The Herald. We are read by an informed, educated readership who can add their knowledge and insights to our stories.
That is invaluable.
We are making the subscriber-only change to support our valued readers, who tell us they don't want the site cluttered up with irrelevant comments, untruths and abuse.
In the past, the journalist’s job was to collect and distribute information to the audience. Technology means that readers can shape a discussion. We look forward to hearing from you on heraldscotland.com
Comments & Moderation
Readers’ comments: You are personally liable for the content of any comments you upload to this website, so please act responsibly. We do not pre-moderate or monitor readers’ comments appearing on our websites, but we do post-moderate in response to complaints we receive or otherwise when a potential problem comes to our attention. You can make a complaint by using the ‘report this post’ link . We may then apply our discretion under the user terms to amend or delete comments.
Post moderation is undertaken full-time 9am-6pm on weekdays, and on a part-time basis outwith those hours.
Read the rules hereLast Updated:
Report this comment Cancel