Donald Trump is not known for his work on climate action.
In fact, he is often known for the opposite.
During election campaigning last year, Mr Trump repeatedly used his mantra “drill, baby, drill” and during his first term as president, he rolled back on climate regulations and pulled the US out of the Paris Agreement, a legally binding international treaty on climate change.
But what action will Donald Trump take now that he is back in power when it comes to climate policy and will it have an impact on Scotland’s climate action?
The Herald spoke to Dr Hannah Salamon, a Research Associate at Glasgow University’s Centre for Public Policy who specialises in climate issues to find out what the potential international impact of Trump’s presidency is on the climate and what the effect will be on Scotland in particular.
Trump Vs Biden
Compared to his predecessor Joe Biden, Trump is not nearly as green-fingered and action taken on the climate under the Democratic president may limit Mr Trump.
“Joe Biden passed the Inflation Reduction Act, the most extensive and ambitious climate legislation the United States has ever seen.” Dr Salamon said, “The Inflation Reduction Act has been in force and will continue to be during Trump's presidency.
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"So, his anti-climate change actions will be limited in some ways by this existing legislation as well as economic forces.”
With Trump already promising to take America out of the Paris Agreement, the academic says this is not a good sign for the rest of us but it’s not a deal-breaker for global action.
“Taking the United States out of the climate agreement is of course not optimal and will reduce the collaboration that can take place to take action against climate change worldwide,” Dr Salamon said, “However, this doesn't mean that climate action on a global scale stops.
"The UK is still taking huge steps to decarbonise, regardless of the position of the American president.”
Trump 'poses global climate threat'
Dr Salamon agreed with climate experts who have said Mr Trump’s presidency poses a threat to climate action across the world but she pointed out that, on the global stage, he has his limits.
“He is uncooperative with climate action and his presidency will certainly not help decrease emissions,” Dr Salamon told The Herald, “However, climate action is happening across the world whether he likes it or not.
"While this is a collective problem that requires America to be on board to meet climate goals, America isn't the only player here.
"There is political will and economic forces at play outside of the American presidency which are helping to push a green agenda.”
But Trump’s need to “drill, baby, drill” may cut through and harm the environment, the academic warned.
“While Biden's position on climate issues could of course have been even more radical, Trump does not seemingly bring any political will to the fight against climate change.
“Conversely he is openly committed to trying to increase fossil fuel production and use in the US.”
“In his first presidency he failed to increase coal use and production, which may bode well for his coming attempts to bolster the fossil fuel energy sector.”
Trump's impact on Scotland's climate action
So what does this mean for Scotland?
The Scottish Government has pledged to halt new oil and gas exploration licences in the North Sea. However, some have said this will signal a win for “climate denier” Mr Trump as his country will import more “fracked gas” into the UK.
In Holyrood this week, this issue was raised by MSP Fergus Ewing who told the Chamber there are 30 million UK homes which are heated by gas and “half of our needs are now imported”.
Mr Ewing said: “The less we produce here, the more we rely increasingly on the USA for fracked gas.”
Mr Ewing told MSPs that if we do not resume the exploration of oil and gas we are only providing a “further boost to the fracking industry so beloved of the president elect”. His comments on this issue were also shared by The Aberdeen & Grampian Chamber of Commerce.
For Dr Salamon, this is an issue which is still “hard to answer” in the midst of the energy transition. The academic believes energy security is “within reach” not by expanding oil and gas, but by expanding the domestic clean energy system in the UK.
“It is much more important to increase roll-out of heat pumps across Scotland, in order to make redundant the need for gas, than to expand oil and gas production in the North Sea,” Dr Salamon said, “Another point to make is that the majority of the UK's imported gas comes from Norway.
"The reality of the climate crisis means that expansion of fossil fuels is simply no longer an option if we want a habitable planet, so those concerned about heating homes across the UK are much better placed to focus their concern on the rollout of the technologies that will make clean heating possible.”
The Scottish Greens want Westminster and Holyrood to “double down on a credible plan” to transition the oil and gas workforce over to the production of clean, renewable energy from the North Sea.
We also know Trump isn’t a fan of wind farms in Scotland. Back in 2019 before he was president, Mr Trump lost a legal battle against the Scottish Government to halt a wind farm project next to his Aberdeenshire golf resort.
Now he’s president, will this change anything?
Dr Salamon said: “Donald Trump doesn't make UK policy. While international interests of course sometimes impact domestic policy, he has no formal power, and it will be up to the UK to decide whether or not to take decisions that align with his preferences.
“With the Clean Power 2030 Action Plan published in December by the UK government, the commitment in the UK is essentially the opposite of Trump's desire to "get rid of windmills"-- wind energy will be increasing substantially in the UK.”
Dr Salamon did say that failing to reduce American emissions is “detrimental to the climate in general, which includes Scotland”.
But Scotland is taking its own action, says Dr Salamon, and she believes this could limit the impact of the new president.
However last year, the Scottish Government accepted it could not reach its target of reducing emissions by 75% by 2030.
In November, a bill was passed by MSPs to scrap annual targets and the 2030 and 2040 interim targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, however, it keeps the aim of reaching net-zero by 2045
Dr Salamon said: “I think it's important to remember that Scotland and the UK are embarking on an ambitious journey to decarbonise, which means hugely increasing production of domestic renewable energy (solar, on and off-shore wind, etc.).
“One benefit of hugely scaling up domestic clean energy production in the UK is precisely because it decreases reliance on other countries' - like the United States - commitments to clean energy production. But this also highlights the limits of Trump's power as president - there are economic incentives to develop clean energy in the United States, and this will continue regardless of his stance.
“Of course, his [Trump’s] policies will have an impact, but he is not the be-all-end-all to whether clean energy sources are developed in the US. Yet it seems likely that goals will not be met without ambitious political will.”
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