New risks emerge as America becomes less attractive

For decades, international investors have treated US government bonds as the safest place for their money. A long bull market in shares has been supported by American bonds and a sound US dollar. Since the global financial crisis of 2008, the underpinning of a ‘safe haven’  has helped stock markets to cope with other uncertainties.

Now, investors are demanding much higher returns to lend money to the US government long-term. America is becoming less attractive to global investors at a time when its government needs them for finance more than ever.

There is plenty to be nervous about. The US government is spending far more than it takes in, with the deficit up this year. Trump's spending and tax cut plans are likely to add to the US national debt over the next decade. And the US dollar has fallen to its lowest level  in almost three years. US business confidence is weak, with the full impact of the supply turmoil yet to bite. Many manufacturers had stockpiled goods and components ahead of Trump’s tariffs and import controls, but this buffer will soon be exhausted.

May's stock market rally might seem reassuring on the surface. Major US technology companies like Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Nvidia delivered strong earnings and drove most of the market gains. The biggest seven tech companies alone were responsible for more than half of the US stock market's rise in May. But these trading results do not yet reflect the full impact of the trade war and supply changes. Analysts expect slower earnings growth for these businesses over the next year. Trump still plans further action, and the tariffs to date will produce significant adverse effects; higher consumer prices, lower business investment and lower economic growth.

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Perhaps most worrying for investors  is the inflation risk building up worldwide. As global tensions rise, governments will spend more on defence, with limited scope for tax increases. Business costs will also increase, as trade disputes continue to disrupt how goods move around the world. Global borrowing costs could force central banks to keep interest rates higher for longer. The Governor of the Bank of England has warned that interest rate cuts are now more uncertain.

There are signs that the tension between governments that want to spend more and nervous international lenders is also playing out in the UK, EU and Japan.  British government bonds – gilts- are already seeing pressure as investors become more choosy about lending to governments anywhere. The OECD report this month warned that weak consumer confidence and fragile public finances leave the UK vulnerable to shocks. Appeasing lenders by cutting spending or raising taxes would hit economic growth.

The end of US exceptionalism, linked to the declining role of the US dollar as a reserve currency, may be a gradual process as it was for the UK.  There is still growth in many major US businesses and the US stock market is by far the most liquid globally. Shares have a record of coping better than bonds with rising inflation and there is value is stock markets outside the US.

But we may be seeing the end of an era when investors could pay less attention to currency movements. And, although government bonds have a role in diversifying portfolios along with a spread of investments internationally, it is harder now to escape geopolitical risks. The recent stock market rebound may give opportunity to rebalance portfolios.

Colin McLean is a director of Barnton Capital