This article appears as part of the Unspun: Scottish Politics newsletter.
The UK Government’s welfare shake up is proving challenging for Scottish Labour MPs.
Westminster is known for its intense energy with late night and lively debates.
But as Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall unveiled the draft Bill that could save £7 billion from the benefits budget, the pressure was even higher.
Kendall’s plans restricts personal independence payments (PIP) for thousands of people, with impact assessments from the DWP suggesting 250,000 people – including 50,000 children – could be pushed into poverty by the reforms.
Rebellions are widely expected, with discontent growing amongst the Labour party.
In Westminster Hall on Wednesday, hours before Kendall unveiled the Bill, it would be an understatement to suggest Scottish Labour MPs were on edge.
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They had come to meet poverty campaigners from Trussell Trust, from constituencies all across Scotland, who were warning food bank use was worse than ever – and would soar if the welfare changes progressed.
I spoke to around 15 of Scotland’s Labour MPs in the early afternoon and every single one had been reluctant to mention the welfare plans.
Several completely refused to speak about the policy, while those that did mostly towed the party line, stressing the current welfare system was broken – a line that followed from the UK Government hours later when the Bill was published.
While the Bill in its entirety had only been published on Wednesday, the headline changes have been known for months, but Labour MPs warned they could not speak about any aspect of welfare reform until they had seen the paper.
Those who did speak on the record were mixed, but the vast majority that I had spoken to across the day mentioned “concerns” around the Bill – though were not planning to make those concerns public yet.
Scottish Labour MPs were on tenterhooks, waiting to find out whether they will lose the party whip for voting against the UK Government’s controversial welfare cuts.
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They have an almighty choice in front of them: vote against the UK Government’s controversial welfare reforms and face the wrath of senior party officials, or vote for the cuts and face fury from the voters who elected them to Westminster in the first place.
Labour suspended seven MPs for six months last year for voting against the government, urging senior figures to scrap the two-child benefit cap.
Now it could happen again. It has also been reported by The Times that anyone who abstains from the vote could be ‘blacklisted’ from promotion.
Starmer has a working majority of 165, meaning 83 Labour MPs would have to rebel for the party to lose the vote.
But 42 Labour MPs have already publicly warned the proposals are the “biggest attack” on the welfare state since Tory austerity, and there are others weighing up their options.
Labour cannot afford such a big challenge to their authority. But for Scottish Labour MPs, the challenge is immense.
Scottish Labour MPs need to decide whether they are willing to risk losing loyal constituents for the appearance of party loyalty.
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