US midterm elections seen as referendum on Trump's second term

They are betting that discontent over Mr Trump’s failure to deliver on his promise to tackle rising costs and perceptions that he has focused more on gilding the nation’s capital than their pain at the pump will depress Republican turnout and drive their own voters to the polls.

Republicans held out hope their money advantage would help stem the tide, but they were bracing to lose control of the US House and fighting to hang onto the US Senate — an outcome that seemed unlikely earlier this year, given a map widely seen as favouring their party.

Margins are tight in both chambers; one or two seats could tip the balance. Democrats need a net gain of four seats in the 100-member Senate to win the majority, and most competitive races are in historically red states. In the 435-member House, they need three.

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More than 57 million people had already cast ballots as of Monday, with turnout surpassing the early vote four years ago in many closely watched states.

The first results in the US midterm elections are expected shortly after 11pm UK time on Tuesday, when polls close in parts of Indiana and Kentucky.

Returns will then emerge through the night as voting ends across the country's multiple time zones, with the final polling stations not closing until around 6am UK time on Wednesday.

But an immediate verdict on control of Congress is unlikely. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 seats in the Senate are being contested, and a number of tightly fought races could take hours, or even days, to be decided as votes are counted and verified.

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Mr Trump, whose party has struggled when he is not running to turn out the low-propensity voters who have fuelled his victories, has told voters to act as though he is running, even as many Republican candidates have kept their distance.

On Tuesday, he declared in a Fox News Channel interview that “everything’s going good” and “inflation is solved” — even though consumer prices rose 3.6% in September from a year earlier, up from 3.4% in August, the commerce department reported last week.

“I think the results are going to be better than you think,” Mr Trump said of the elections.

Mr Trump’s aggressive schedule had stops in the reddest states, including Mississippi, South Carolina and Texas, underscoring his party’s challenges.

Mr Trump has made false claims about voting fraud, such as insisting non-citizens are casting ballots en masse. His administration has filed lawsuits in Alaska and California. Democrats fear interference and voter intimidation as his justice department threatens to prosecute local election officials.

The results will shape the final two years of Mr Trump’s second term after the Republican-controlled Congress acted as a rubber stamp to much of his agenda.

While Mr Trump has proven adept at steamrolling efforts to rein him in, Democrats taking control of even one chamber of Congress would open the floodgates to investigations and possible impeachments.

Defence secretary Pete Hegseth and tech titan Elon Musk, a former top Trump adviser, are among possible targets.

An especially strong showing for Democrats would also boost potential presidential candidates, including California governor Gavin Newsom, Illinois governor JB Pritzker and former transportation secretary Pete Buttigieg. It could also complicate the paths of vice president JD Vance and other Republicans who may be looking to turn their loyalty to Mr Trump into momentum.

Republicans tried to buck historical precedent — a president’s party almost always loses seats during the midterms — with an aggressive redistricting effort aimed at creating a more favourable congressional map.

But the plan may fall short as districts drawn in Florida and other states to be safely red may not vote that way.