Meet the younger me. I’m in my late teens and talking to a friend of mine. The subject of the constitution comes up (and bear in mind, this is the 1980s so the subject doesn’t come up very often). My friend says he thinks Scottish independence is a bad idea and, before I know it, I’ve uttered three little words that, 30 years on, still surprise the older (and wiser?) me: “I support independence”.

I have since, as one or two of you may have noticed, changed my mind. I now believe Scotland is better off in the union, although exactly how and when my opinion changed I’m not sure. I moved away from Scotland and lived and worked in Wales and London for a bit. Maybe that did it. The SNP became more prominent and powerful. Maybe it was that. Or perhaps I just got older and my views became more cautious (or more sensible). It happens.

And it’s how opinions change, isn’t it? I’m sure there are some people who have moments of epiphany, and perhaps there were such moments in 2014. Perhaps people read Scotland's Future: Your Guide to an Independent Scotland and were hit by a ray of light. But for most of us, it’s less dramatic: opinions form, and re-form, based on a subconscious running total of facts, trends, conversations, and doubts, all of which mean you can come to an opinion, or change it, without really noticing. Like me on independence.

I suspect this ebb and flow of opinion is how it works for most people even on the constitution. We may think we have principles of stone but look how opinions that appear unchangeable do actually change – on gay marriage, on smoking indoors, and lots of other issues. The same can happen on independence and because the situation is so changeable and erratic, the tide of opinion laps in, then out, then in again, depending on what’s going on in the world.

All of this is normal and perhaps even Nicola Sturgeon has doubts (when she’s alone, in private, when her mind is wandering – I hope so, it’s human). I was also pleased to see this week that Tom Devine has admitted he’s been having doubts. In 2014, the eminent historian was the star of the intellectual wing of the Yes movement, but speaking at the Edinburgh Book Festival the other day, he said he wasn’t sure if he still felt the same way. Support for Yes was a “decision at the time”, he said, but “whether it was a decision forever will be revealed in due course.”

I have to say it’s gratifying to hear Sir Tom talk in this way because certainties can be exhausting. Sir Tom also seemed to be suggesting his views had changed because the circumstances changed and that’s healthy too. The last referendum was pre-Brexit and pre-pandemic and if a landscape alters, it’s sensible to ask if we should keep taking the same path through it. And the same applies on the other side: as I say, lots of people, including me, have changed their minds and have doubts about whether No is the right option. Anything else would be worrying, and weird. And if you’ve never had doubts about your own views on the constitution, I suggest you have a word with yourself.

This reality – the fact that all of us (or most of us) are subtly, secretly and often slowly, changing and doubting our views – also offers an indication of how things will go in the next few years. Perhaps – as some hope – there will be a dramatic event that will alter public opinion dramatically, although they said that about Brexit, and the election of Boris, and nothing happened, so I suspect dramatic change is unlikely.

Instead, something more subtle is happening. Quietly, all those facts, trends, influences, conversations and doubts, the subconscious running total, is doing its work in the background. Which means a couple of things. It means those friends of yours who you think are on the wrong side of the debate are unlikely to be suddenly converted. But it also means that all those conversations, arguments and debates are planting seeds that may grow into a trend, just like they did with gay marriage. Then, one day, we will discover that opinions really have changed. And that we’re in a new place. And that – finally – we can get on with our lives.

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