Everyone knows there isn’t going to be a referendum on Scottish independence in 2023. Boris Johnson knows it. Nicola Sturgeon knows it. I know it. You know it. We all know it. And yet still, most weeks, the Scottish Government carries on with the palaver of “preparing for 2023”. It’s the kind of thing that used to make unionists angry. Now? They’re not even that bothered any more.

The latest example of the Government “preparing for 2023” was the interview that Lorna Slater, co-leader of the Scottish Greens, gave to The Herald last week. Ms Slater said the Greens and the SNP would publish a joint prospectus on independence and added that she was confident of a new vote happening next year. "That is the timetable we are signed up to,” she said. “Legislation will be coming into parliament this year.”

But let’s take a closer look because even though Ms Slater told us the Greens and the SNP will publish a joint prospectus, she also revealed that they will publish separate plans too and there’s a good reason for that: the two parties don’t agree on many of the fundamentals. For example, the Greens want a new currency ASAP, but the SNP wants to carry on using sterling until several key tests have been met which would take many years if ever. The point is that Ms Slater expects us to believe the parties will reach a coherent agreement within a year, or go into a referendum disagreeing about currency. Unbelievable.

The fact that Ms Slater is apparently so relaxed about the next year or so is also revealing. Asked if her party and the SNP would eventually have a shared policy on currency, she said we were still more than a year from the referendum and there was plenty of time to have a “national conversation”. Perhaps she thinks the “conversation” will really happen or perhaps she’s relaxed about it because she knows it’s not going to end in a referendum. It’s easy to be blasé about an exam when you never have to sit it.

But whether the referendum happens or not, it’s the assumption underlying Ms Slater’s comments that I’d really like to talk about because in a way it’s the most disturbing bit. Scottish ministers may know the vote isn’t going to happen, but they are proceeding as if they have our support to carry it out, based on the elections last May. Remember, though, that the Greens took an execrable 1.3% of the constituency vote in that election and, even combined with the SNP, the two parties didn’t win a majority. The polls also show Scots do not support a referendum in 2023. So where in the world is the mandate?

I think it might also be useful to compare the rather arrogant, or at least presumptive, behaviour of Ms Slater and the rest of the government with the similar yet different situation in Northern Ireland. The union looks just as wobbly there as it does here, but interestingly Sinn Fein seems to be adopting a different strategy. Dare I say it, they appear to be showing some of the humility and pragmatism the SNP lacks. Perhaps the nationalists of Scotland could learn a thing or two from the nationalists of Ireland.

Take the recent comments by John Finucane for example. Mr Finucane is the Sinn Fein MP for North Belfast and was asked on the Today programme if Sinn Fein emerging as the biggest party in the Assembly elections would be a mandate for a border poll. “No,” he said, “I don’t think one necessarily equates to the other. The issue of a border poll has to stretch across a lot more than one single election in a moment of time.”

Just to be clear, Mr Finucane was certainly not contradicting his belief that there is a momentum which will eventually lead to a border poll – and he’s probably right – but he was also appearing to take a more mature approach to what the grounds of the poll should be and when it should happen. “If we are returned as the biggest party on the 5th of May that does not necessarily mean that we will be calling for the border poll on the 6th of May.”

We shouldn’t ignore the fact, of course, that in many ways the situations in Scotland and Northern Ireland aren’t really that different. Sinn Fein, like the SNP, says there is an unstoppable conversation about the Union while the unionist parties, like the ones in Scotland, say we should focus instead on problems like the pandemic. Also like the SNP, Sinn Fein is made up of different groups, some pragmatic and some more extreme who want to push harder for a referendum.

But the reasons for Mr Finucane’s pragmatism are interesting. Sinn Fein shouldn’t support a border poll until it is properly prepared for it, he said. He also said that Brexit had shown us how not to deal with constitutional change. And most importantly he said the voters in any poll needed to be informed. “People need to be clear about what it is they’re voting for and voting against,” he said.

Ms Slater and her colleagues in the Scottish Government would do well to pay attention to all of that. The SNP and the Greens shouldn’t support a referendum until they are prepared for one and the truth is they aren’t and can’t be in the space of a year or so. As the former deputy leader of the SNP, Jim Sillars, put it in this newspaper, his former party is actually hopelessly ill-prepared for a vote. And his advice for the SNP? Wakey-wakey.

The rest of Mr Finucane’s comments are equally applicable to Scotland. Brexit has shown us how not to deal with constitutional change, he said, and we can see it for ourselves. The ill-prepared, confrontational, and delusional approach of the breakaways (in this case the British government) has damaged us economically and socially and led to terrible problems at the border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. If the SNP believes the same won’t happen between England and Scotland, then tell us how.

Which takes us to Mr Finucane’s final warning which is that the voters in any poll need to be informed. In other words, we need to be clear about what it is we’re voting for and voting against and yet all the big questions – currency, borders, you name it – are still unanswered just months before a referendum is apparently going to happen. Ms Slater seems to believe the “national conversation” will sort it but who believes her?

Ms Slater should also pay attention to what Mr Finucane said about mandates because in the end it is the most important point. Who knows, if Sinn Fein does become the largest party maybe his words on referendums will prove to have been empty. But the point remains: being returned as the biggest party – or in the case of the Scottish Greens, one of the smallest – does not necessarily mean you should be calling for a referendum or “preparing” for one. Show us a little respect instead. Show a bit of humility. And stop preparing for a 2023 referendum that isn’t going to happen.

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