Keir Starmer has played his cards well during these last turbulent days.
But his – our – way ahead looks hazardous. The transatlantic bridge metaphor is over-used. I see his position as the uncomfortable one of having one leg on the shore, another on a boat, and the two drifting apart. You can try to narrow the gap. Or decide quickly on which side you will gather yourself. Or you fall in.
Narrowing the gap is a sensible first objective, for comfort, dignity and, with luck, long term stability. We are so invested in both Europe and America, economically, militarily and culturally, that it’s almost unthinkable to have to choose.
Sir Keir’s fawning on the new American ruler may be embarrassing, but necessary. Theatrical presentation of the King’s invitation was one example. Quietly accepting Mr Trump’s threats to our Commonwealth and Nato partner, Canada, and our Nato ally Denmark were others. It is not noble for a child to suck up to the playground bully – but it can be sensible, highlighting one’s nice aspects. For us, those are meetings with the King, reminding President Trump of his fondness for Britain and, particularly, Scotland (where the fondness is especially unrequited); and asking, perhaps through gritted teeth, that post-Brexit we should be excused the punishment beating apparently lined up for the EU.
We have reasons to delay choosing sides. Our security structures are deeply enmeshed with America’s. It’s unspoken, but probable, that our nuclear deterrent depends on a US key. Our intelligence partnership is valued by the Americans – but we depend more on them than they on us. And, as glimpsed recently, partnership may limit our independent use of our own intelligence: it’s unclear whether the Americans are insisting we join their intelligence boycott of Ukraine.
We have long resisted efforts to create European military structures, alongside Nato, that could, if necessary, operate without America. We now look wrong. We are in the curious position where France, an EU member with its home-made nuclear Force de frappe and outside the US-led "5 Eyes" intelligence group, may now have the greater sovereignty.
The choice is looming. US policy won’t change greatly for the next four years, at least. It now seems underpinned by a deep-seated contempt for Western Europe, which Trumpism doesn’t have for Russia. Weakening security ties with America will be extraordinarily hard. We would need to avoid cutting connections altogether. But that choice may not be ours.
This US administration could easily tell us that, if we take one further step towards EU co-operation, they will do the cutting off. And mean it. Our values and unusually united public opinion make aligning with President Trump’s America almost unthinkable. For daily business, it would risk prospects of repairing relations with the EU and its bigger and nearer market. Even more, it would reject our own principles and ideals.
George Fergusson is a former and senior official, who served as Secretary of the UK Cabinet Defence & Overseas Policy Committee in a wider diplomatic career
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